# Call Me Cray - Counting my 3x3 solves for 1 year!



## BillyRain (Jan 1, 2014)

Ok so, 

This is probably the dumbest most stupid idea I've ever even considered going through with.. but that's kinda why I wanna do it. 
I recapped on Zane's 1 year delayed 3BLD and whilst anticipating his result it got me thinking about crazy things you can do after new years. I made a joke in IRC that I should actually count every single 3x3 solve I do this year or something dumb like that. 

Then I started thinking, why not!? I realize that this is an almost incomprehensible task and it will probably drive me completely mad after just a month or so, but I want to see just how long I can sustain it for  

So just regular 3x3 solves would count. Even hand scrambles. Basically any occasion in which I solve a 3x3 from a random state or a state that requires me to use my own methods to complete the solve. At home, in public, at meets/comps.. every single one! 

I've thought about hosting Prisma from the internet so that I can use it wherever I go and whenever I don't have Prisma (Meets/Out and about), I will use a hand clicker to keep track of every single solve. 

I'd be interested to hear your predictions also. Based on 200 solves per day, that would result in around 73,000 solves in a year. I thought it would be a lot more! But hey, I did an avg600 the other day after getting carried away, so who knows what the number could be!! 

Looking forward to everyone telling me how crazy/insane/nuts I am and how long you think I'll actually keep this thing going before giving up  

Billz 

*SOLVES SO FAR: 4467*

 *PLL Skips: 79*

 *OLL Skips: 32*

 *LL Skips: 0*


----------



## PeelingStickers (Jan 1, 2014)

I saw your crazy session the other day, this sunds like a fun idea, sadly I've already done some solved today so I can't do this  good luck!


----------



## ThomasJE (Jan 1, 2014)

Looking forward to it. Good luck!


----------



## Antonie faz fan (Jan 1, 2014)

I have done like 60000 solves maybe


----------



## sneaklyfox (Jan 1, 2014)

This sounds interesting. I think you should post updates every so often... maybe once every few weeks? Or once every 5k solves? Maybe I'll try this too although I didn't keep track of all the ones I already did today.


----------



## BillyRain (Jan 1, 2014)

sneaklyfox said:


> This sounds interesting. I think you should post updates every so often... maybe once every few weeks? Or once every 5k solves? Maybe I'll try this too although I didn't keep track of all the ones I already did today.



Guess you could start from tomorrow and end on the 2nd Jan 2015 so that you get a 100% accurate result.


----------



## Ollie (Jan 1, 2014)

<3


----------



## TeddyKGB (Jan 1, 2014)

Would this just be normal 3x3 or would it included OH, BLD, feet and FMC?


----------



## BillyRain (Jan 1, 2014)

TeddyKGB said:


> Would this just be normal 3x3 or would it included OH, BLD, feet and FMC?



Just 3x3 sighted two handed solves. 

I debated as to weather to include OH or BLD, but seeing as they are classed as separate events (and I don't practice/do OH except for at comp), I felt that they should not be counted.

I've also decided that the OP would be the best/easiest/most secure place to keep my running total.


----------



## RageCuber (Jan 1, 2014)

Sounds fun, I might try


----------



## Dene (Jan 2, 2014)

Hi Cray.


----------



## Coolster01 (Jan 2, 2014)

Have fun Cray!


----------



## Dino (Jan 2, 2014)

You could use SpeedCube Timer when away from the computer if you have an Android phone, it allows you to export your times in a format (can't remember which) that can be imported into Prisma easily. Not got a clue what's out there if you're rocking an iPhone though!


----------



## ~Adam~ (Jan 2, 2014)

I'm going to start counting the number of solves you forget to count at meets =P


----------



## Iggy (Jan 2, 2014)

Wow good luck :tu


----------



## TDM (Jan 2, 2014)

BillyRain said:


> *SOLVES SO FAR: 127*
> 
> *PLL Skips: 3*
> *OLL Skips: 1*
> *LL Skips: 0*


I would say good luck, but obviously you don't need any more


----------



## BillyRain (Jan 2, 2014)

TDM said:


> I would say good luck, but obviously you don't need any more



Haha yeah! I thought that was pretty good going!

I think the skip stats will be some very interesting data.


----------



## LucidCuber (Jan 2, 2014)

I plan to join you on this. Starting from today, then I'll go to Jan 2 2015. Maybe if we get a few more people on board we could have a little unofficial competition  As A side ntoe I've had 7 LL skips in my time cubing, so I assume I've done about 100,000-125,000 ish solves.

So far this year:

Solves so far: 22

PLL Skips: 1
OLL: Skips: 
LL Skips: 0

PB Lucky: 9.32 (PLL)
PB Non-lucky: 10.83


----------



## sneaklyfox (Jan 2, 2014)

I'm not going to count PLL/OLL skips. I am going to include OH and BLD for mine... basically count all 3x3 solves. I don't do feet and I almost never do BLD and hardly any OH (at least not recently)... sometimes I play with other methods like Roux so counting skips would not exactly work.

I'll include yesterday because I did very few.

SOLVES SO FAR: (see sig)


----------



## penguinz7 (Jan 2, 2014)

im doing it!


----------



## LucidCuber (Jan 2, 2014)

Well I've forgotten again. Good luck to you remembering them all. However, as I always keep a daily tally of Skips, I'll include them here and hopefully until the end of the year.

So far this year (end of Jan 2nd 2014):


PLL Skips: 6
OLL: Skips:2
LL Skips: 0

PB Lucky: 8.34 (PLL)
PB Non-lucky: 10.83
Sub-10's: 4
Sub-9''s: 1


----------



## RyanG (Jan 2, 2014)

I,m definitely interested in the stats involved like the amount of skips for PLL, OLL, and LL and can't wait until next year to see it.


----------



## Lchu613 (Jan 3, 2014)

RyanG said:


> I can't wait until next year to see it.



You can't wait? Oh dear, don't know what you're going to do. You have a time traveling machine by any chance? XD


Yeah the stats are going to be interesting to see.


----------



## applemobile (Jan 3, 2014)

I give you untill march.


----------



## BillyRain (Jan 3, 2014)

Going to have to become pretty attached to these guys


----------



## Dene (Jan 3, 2014)

But seriously though, can someone fix the title because it's bugging the poop out of me and clearly I'm going to have to put up with seeing it on a regular basis throughout this year.


----------



## BillyRain (Jan 3, 2014)

Dene said:


> But seriously though, can someone fix the title because it's bugging the poop out of me and clearly I'm going to have to put up with seeing it on a regular basis throughout this year.



What's wrong with the title?

Seems to be only you that it's bugging


----------



## Eva (Jan 3, 2014)

BillyRain said:


> What's wrong with the title?
> 
> Seems to be only you that it's bugging



I think it's about Call me cra*Z*y. Good luck with your attempt to count,I would totally go nuts after a few days.


----------



## BillyRain (Jan 3, 2014)

Eva said:


> I think it's about Call me cra*Z*y. Good luck with your attempt to count,I would totally go nuts after a few days.



Lol I know.

I might just put a capital Z in it just to make it worse


----------



## penguinz7 (Jan 6, 2014)

I lost count..


----------



## JackJ (Jan 6, 2014)

This is so cool! I really hope you succeed. I'm most curious to see how close your solves are to the mathematical probability of a OLL/PLL/LL skip. As of solve 583 you're averaging a PLL skip ~ 1/83 solves while you're averaging an OLL skip ~ 1/193 solves!

PLL skip: 1/72
OLL skip: 1/216
LL skip: 1/15552

For those who didn't know.


----------



## ~Adam~ (Jan 6, 2014)

Did you count your solves on Sat night in the pub?
We each solved 3 cubes with beginners method iirc.


----------



## BillyRain (Jan 7, 2014)

cube-o-holic said:


> Did you count your solves on Sat night in the pub?
> We each solved 3 cubes with beginners method iirc.



I did indeed. I had my clicker in my pocket


----------



## Schmidt (Jan 7, 2014)

You could label the last clicker "ALL"


----------



## Mikel (Jan 8, 2014)

I will also be counting all of my 3x3 solves for the year. I am keeping most of the times in excel and will be estimating the number of un-timed solves. Here is my progress so far:


569 timed solves
110 un-timed solves
----------------------

*679* total solves

I haven't been keeping track of PLL skips, but I know I've had at least 5. I also have had 1 LL skip!!


----------



## Gordon (Jan 8, 2014)

Funny thing I found this thread, because to get back again into cubing, I wanted to track all my timed solves of the year and started an excel sheet for that.

However, I only count timed solves, no skips.

Here are my statistics:
- Number of solves: *180* (I know, I have not that much time)
- PBs(Single / ao5 / ao12): *17.29* / *23.59* / *25.57*
- Mean of all solves: 29.60
- Worst time: 49.02


----------



## ~Adam~ (Jan 8, 2014)

Mikel said:


> I am keeping most of the times in excel and will be estimating the number of un-timed solves.



You are going to put loads of effort in for, well, nothing but a guess?


----------



## Mikel (Jan 8, 2014)

cube-o-holic said:


> You are going to put loads of effort in for, well, nothing but a guess?



It's not _nothing_ but a guess. It is most of my solves + an estimate of the ones I think I forgot to count.


----------



## ~Adam~ (Jan 8, 2014)

Mikel said:


> It's not _nothing_ but a guess. It is most of my solves + an estimate of the ones I think I forgot to count.



So almost the correct number?
So an approximate estimation?
So a guess.

I couldn't put that much effort in and not have THE number at the end.
It would invalidate all the effort for me.


----------



## Mikel (Jan 8, 2014)

cube-o-holic said:


> So almost the correct number?
> So an approximate estimation?
> So a guess.



I'm an engineer, so a number within 25% error is good enough for me. Luckily, as of right now I'm only at 2%. 



cube-o-holic said:


> I couldn't put that much effort in and not have THE number at the end.
> It would invalidate all the effort for me.



I guess you must be perfect then. Most people aren't.


----------



## ~Adam~ (Jan 8, 2014)

Mikel said:


> I guess you must be perfect then. Most people aren't.



Perfect, no.
OCD, yes.


----------



## TDM (Jan 8, 2014)

cube-o-holic said:


> OCD, yes.


(Then why does your username not begin with a capital letter?


----------



## applemobile (Jan 8, 2014)

I'm just going to guess how many I do.


----------



## ~Adam~ (Jan 8, 2014)

TDM said:


> (Then why does your username not begin with a capital letter?



That is going to bother me now.
Luckily not too much since usernames don't need to start with a capital to be valid.

Sorry for the OT.


----------



## Mikel (Jan 8, 2014)

cube-o-holic said:


> Perfect, no.
> OCD, yes.



Well, unfortunately my cstimer session just crashed and I lost ~ 100 times. I don't know exactly how many though, so I'll just have to estimate, or in your words _guess_.


----------



## cmhardw (Jan 8, 2014)

RyanG said:


> I,m definitely interested in the stats involved like the amount of skips for PLL, OLL, and LL and can't wait until next year to see it.





JackJ said:


> This is so cool! I really hope you succeed. I'm most curious to see how close your solves are to the mathematical probability of a OLL/PLL/LL skip. As of solve 583 you're averaging a PLL skip ~ 1/83 solves while you're averaging an OLL skip ~ 1/193 solves!
> 
> PLL skip: 1/72
> OLL skip: 1/216
> ...



I am also very interested in the stats, particularly for OLL skips.

Can you give us some details on your solving method, and also let us know if those change throughout the year? For example, I'll bet you use at least some partial edge orientation control, so your OLL skip percentage would already be better than 1/216, and by extension your LL skip percentage would be better than 1/15552.

Do you use COLL, or do you try to preserve blocks at all with your OLL choice? This would improve your PLL skip percentage to be better than the 1/72.

Very neat! Good luck, and even if you don't make it for a year, the stats you will provide will be very interesting/helpful for the rest of us! If you do make it the whole year, then that is amazing and even more of an accomplishment!

Have fun!


----------



## ~Adam~ (Jan 8, 2014)

Mikel said:


> Well, unfortunately my cstimer session just crashed and I lost ~ 100 times. I don't know exactly how many though, so I'll just have to estimate, or in your words _guess_.



I would definitely give up the challenge if I were in your shoes.
I'm glad that it doesn't bother you as much as it would me.


----------



## BillyRain (Jan 8, 2014)

cmhardw said:


> I am also very interested in the stats, particularly for OLL skips.
> 
> Can you give us some details on your solving method, and also let us know if those change throughout the year? For example, I'll bet you use at least some partial edge orientation control, so your OLL skip percentage would already be better than 1/216, and by extension your LL skip percentage would be better than 1/15552.
> 
> ...



Hi! 

I use CFOP with full OLL/PLL.

I do not use any COLL and I don't really know how to edge control beyond sledging rather than conventional insert if I feel that it might help. But I think that will change in the near future when I put time into learning it properly. So I'd say right now my OLL/PLL skip chances are pretty close to standard.

Billy


----------



## cmhardw (Jan 8, 2014)

BillyRain said:


> Hi!
> 
> I use CFOP with full OLL/PLL.
> 
> ...



Thanks for giving the details on your method, that helps with figuring out the stats!

If you always slegehammer, or at least alter your insertion, when a conventional insert would give you 4 flipped edges at OLL, then your OLL skip probability would be: \( \frac{1}{189} \)
Your LL skip chance would be: \( \frac{1}{13608} \)



Spoiler



OLL comes from 7 possible edge orientations, 1 of which is solved. Multiply this by 27 possible corner orientations.

LL skip comes from OLL skip chance times 1/72 PLL skip chance



This number will change if you aren't 100% on top of sledghammering or altering your insertions to avoid the all 4 edges flipped case, but that will give you a starting point.

---edit---
*Additional Calculations*

For some more information, say you are on top of paying attention to avoiding the all 4 edges flipped case 90% of the time, and 10% of the time you are doing basically standard Fridrich solves with no regards to edge orientation.

In that case your OLL skip chance would be: \( \frac{79}{15120} \)


Spoiler



\( 0.9*\frac{1}{189}+0.1*\frac{1}{216} \)



Your LL skip chance would be: \( \frac{79}{1088640} \)


Spoiler



\( 0.9*\frac{1}{13608}+0.1*\frac{1}{15552} \)


----------



## Jaysammey777 (Jan 8, 2014)

cmhardw said:


> If you always slegehammer, or at least alter your insertion, when a conventional insert would give you 4 flipped edges at OLL, then your OLL skip probability would be: \( \frac{1}{189} \)
> Your LL skip chance would be: \( \frac{1}{13608} \)



If he did sledge hammer only when there are 4 flipped edges, than he will never have an OLL skip when he does this, not altering the results of a skip, but rather what OLL appears... right?


----------



## JackJ (Jan 8, 2014)

cmhardw said:


> Thanks for giving the details on your method, that helps with figuring out the stats!
> 
> If you always slegehammer, or at least alter your insertion, when a conventional insert would give you 4 flipped edges at OLL, then your OLL skip probability would be: \( \frac{1}{189} \)
> Your LL skip chance would be: \( \frac{1}{13608} \)
> ...



I just love probability relating to that of the Rubik's Cube. I find it much more interesting and fun than exponential functions and logarithms. I've been toying with probability the past few days and it's so cool. I'm still trying to wrap my head around how you find that an OLL skip occurs 1/216 times.  

You're the man Chris!


----------



## uberCuber (Jan 9, 2014)

Jaysammey777 said:


> If he did sledge hammer only when there are 4 flipped edges, than he will never have an OLL skip when he does this, not altering the results of a skip, but rather what OLL appears... right?



This is a good point, I think. It does decrease the total number of OLL cases that can come up, but at the same time it makes certain cases more likely to appear.


----------



## Lchu613 (Jan 9, 2014)

TDM said:


> (Then why does your username not begin with a capital letter?





cube-o-holic said:


> That is going to bother me now.
> Luckily not too much since usernames don't need to start with a capital to be valid.
> 
> Sorry for the OT.



Because he wanted it to be uniformly uncapitalized.


----------



## Jaysammey777 (Jan 9, 2014)

uberCuber said:


> This is a good point, I think. It does decrease the total number of OLL cases that can come up, but at the same time it makes certain cases more likely to appear.



It only increases the cases with L or bar edges, decreases no edges, and does nothing to a full cross, so OLL skip remains the same. Or at least tht is how I think about it.


----------



## cmhardw (Jan 9, 2014)

Jaysammey777 said:


> If he did sledge hammer only when there are 4 flipped edges, than he will never have an OLL skip when he does this, not altering the results of a skip, but rather what OLL appears... right?





uberCuber said:


> This is a good point, I think. It does decrease the total number of OLL cases that can come up, but at the same time it makes certain cases more likely to appear.





Jaysammey777 said:


> It only increases the cases with L or bar edges, decreases no edges, and does nothing to a full cross, so OLL skip remains the same. Or at least tht is how I think about it.



Hmmm, that is a good point. I guess you would have to specify that in order to gain the advantage of the \( \frac{1}{189} \) OLL skip chance, you have to ensure that you never end up with a solved F2L and 4 flipped LL edges, by whatever means will ensure that. So, for example, you could sledgehammer during the F2L early on when you notice flipped LL edges, or generally alter your c/e pair insertions such that you can 100% of the time avoid a solved F2L with 4 flipped LL edges. If you can do that, then you can ensure the \( \frac{1}{189} \) OLL skip chance.



JackJ said:


> I just love probability relating to that of the Rubik's Cube. I find it much more interesting and fun than exponential functions and logarithms. I've been toying with probability the past few days and it's so cool. I'm still trying to wrap my head around how you find that an OLL skip occurs 1/216 times.
> 
> You're the man Chris!



I do too  Yes, definitely start with the probability for OLL and PLL skips. To be better understand the 1/216 probability for an OLL skip, try calculating the probability of the "X" OLL case where all four edges are flipped, and all four corners are correctly oriented. If you want to open the door to some really cool cubing related probability, try finding the probability for OLL/PLL/LL skips on megaminx 

As a side note I'm reading a book on the number \( e \) which includes discussion on its discovery, the history of the principal mathematicians involved, its uses in different fields of science and math, etc.. In the book there is a whole chapter on John Napier, the person credited with the invention of logarithms. Napier was the first to publish about logarithms, in 1614, but there is historical evidence that he wasn't the first to use them. His logarithms didn't work exactly like logarithms in the modern sense, he defined them without using the concept of the "base" of the logarithm like we do. However, with some algebraic manipulation before applying his logarithms, they turn out to be a close approximation to doing modern logarithms to the base \( \frac{1}{e} \). Cool stuff!


----------



## Bindedsa (Jan 24, 2014)

Prisma does this for me, I'm up to 2800 not counting anything but TH. Though I have done about 650 One handed solves. No Bld or feet.



cmhardw said:


> Hmmm, that is a good point. I guess you would have to specify that in order to gain the advantage of the \( \frac{1}{189} \) OLL skip chance, you have to ensure that you never end up with a solved F2L and 4 flipped LL edges, by whatever means will ensure that. So, for example, you could sledgehammer during the F2L early on when you notice flipped LL edges, or generally alter your c/e pair insertions such that you can 100% of the time avoid a solved F2L with 4 flipped LL edges. If you can do that, then you can ensure the \( \frac{1}{189} \) OLL skip chance.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Interesting, if I am about to rotate and notice that there are is only one flipped edge I'll put that in my f2l slot then when inserting my pair it will orient it. How does this increase my chances? It's only of my next pair is misoriented and I have 3 oriented edges.


----------



## BillyRain (Mar 15, 2014)

I'm very much afraid to announce that I am abandoning this challenge for the two following reasons. 

1. I feel that I may not have been accurate enough in keeping track of every single solve that I have done. In the back of my mind every few days.. I am always thinking about whether I remembered to add that solve to the clicker or if I added that prisma session count to the running total.. I feel that unless one can have a flawless counting system and get a 100% accurate result.. the exercise is meaningless and pointless.

2. More importantly, I fear that it is hindering my enthusiasm to practice 3x3. Every time I want to solve 3x3 I have the added responsibility to keep track of every solve, be it a solve after a misscramble, a casual random solve or any other. I don't have this responsibility when practicing/solving other events so I think I have been subconsciously inclined to practice 3x3 less. This is reflected in the final total.. this is not alot of solves for less than 3 months IMHO.

Sorry if anyone was actually following this (I doubt it anyway) or if anyone was looking forward to the final data. 

However, I hope that the data that I have finished up with (Which i believe to be more or less accurate), could be useful in some way..

I fail.


----------



## Coolster01 (Mar 15, 2014)

Had the feeling this would happen, but it's okay Cray!


----------



## Rocky0701 (Mar 15, 2014)

Yeah, at least you tried! I will probably do this, but for a month instead of a year.


----------



## animeshsareen12 (Mar 16, 2014)

what were you at before you stopped


----------



## BillyRain (Mar 16, 2014)

animeshsareen12 said:


> what were you at before you stopped



See the OP


----------



## Dene (Mar 16, 2014)

Oh Cray, Cray, Cray... So disappointing


----------



## thatkid (Mar 16, 2014)

Now I want to take this up


----------



## Filipe Teixeira (May 13, 2014)

I will try this, it seems cool.


----------



## kunparekh18 (May 15, 2014)

Hey, Cray!


----------



## CiaranBeahan (Dec 12, 2014)

Have you actually gone through with this or not?
It would be interesting if you actually accomplished this.


----------



## ~Adam~ (Dec 13, 2014)

CiaranBeahan said:


> Have you actually gone through with this or not?
> It would be interesting if you actually accomplished this.





BillyRain said:


> I'm very much afraid to announce that I am abandoning this challenge for the two following reasons.
> 
> 1. I feel that I may not have been accurate enough in keeping track of every single solve that I have done. In the back of my mind every few days.. I am always thinking about whether I remembered to add that solve to the clicker or if I added that prisma session count to the running total.. I feel that unless one can have a flawless counting system and get a 100% accurate result.. the exercise is meaningless and pointless.
> 
> ...



This


----------



## sneaklyfox (Dec 13, 2014)

I'm still doing this (see my sig) except it's just to see how many 3x3 solves I have actually done. I have no interesting data since I don't keep track of how many skips I get. I'm actually looking forward to not having to count how many solves I do. It's not too bad at the computer but I have to remember every untimed solve I do until I can keep a better record of it.


----------



## Rocky0701 (Dec 13, 2014)

sneaklyfox said:


> I'm still doing this (see my sig) except it's just to see how many 3x3 solves I have actually done. I have no interesting data since I don't keep track of how many skips I get. I'm actually looking forward to not having to count how many solves I do. It's not too bad at the computer but I have to remember every untimed solve I do until I can keep a better record of it.


Awesome! I probably don't even half a quarter of that. Then again I do big cubes mostly. I also would not have that amount of dedication.


----------



## penguinz7 (Dec 13, 2014)

Yup, I have about exactly half a quarter. (Or just an eighth ) I also do a lot of other events.. And don't have that much dedication..


----------



## sneaklyfox (Jan 1, 2015)

Well, I'll have to say I'm very glad I don't have to count solves anymore. 42140 3x3 solves in 2014.


----------



## TDM (Jan 1, 2015)

sneaklyfox said:


> Well, I'll have to say I'm very glad I don't have to count solves anymore. 42140 3x3 solves in 2014.


Well done for making it to the end of the year... I know if I'd have tried it I would have lost count within a week 



Spoiler



but


Spoiler



not even 42195


----------



## Username (Jan 1, 2015)

wait what it's been a year?



TDM said:


> Spoiler
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I'm glad I wasn't the only one who thought that


----------



## sneaklyfox (Jan 5, 2015)

Ahh... I didn't think of that!


----------



## Rocky0701 (Jan 5, 2015)

Great job!


----------

