# Safe/unsafe WRs



## ryanj92 (Aug 22, 2014)

I had a thought earlier, and I thought I'd share it because I thought it would make for some good discussion...

If we define a 'safe' WR as one which very few people are likely to beat, how many of the current WRs do you think are safe, and which do you think is the most/least safe?

Personally, I think MBLD is the safest WR right now.


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## Bob (Aug 22, 2014)

I think FMC single is the safest. It will be really damn hard to beat 20 moves.


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## CyanSandwich (Aug 22, 2014)

Safe: MBLD, FMC (single)

Unsafe: 5BLD, 4BLD


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## AvGalen (Aug 22, 2014)

Other people have come close to 20 (21)
Nobody is close to Feliks on 555 avg, but he keeps breaking it himself. Does that mean it is safe or not?
If that is considered safe I think the 6.54 333 avg is the safest. Nobody else got close.
2x2x2 single is also mostly impossible to beat
3multiblind has been completely perfected by Marcin. He dominated but not only did he start to do more and quicker, he also got more accurate


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## Tim Major (Aug 22, 2014)

Safe: Skewb average, 3x3 average, multi
Unsafe: 2x2 average, 4bld, 5bld, OH single


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## Cale S (Aug 22, 2014)

I agree with FMC and multi BLD being safe, as well as 2x2 single, 4x4 single, skewb average, square-1 single, and megaminx single.
WRs I think are unsafe are pyraminx average (because Drew) and 4BLD.


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## goodatthis (Aug 22, 2014)

Yeah, I think it's going to take a long time before anyone but Maskow beats the MBLD WR.

If I could rank them, here would be my list

Safest:

MBLD
Skewb average
5x5 single
6x6 single
Megaminx single
3x3 average

Unsafe:
5BLD (mainly because Ollie is wicked fast at home)
4BLD (same as above)
2x2 average
3BLD mean

Also, I do think that FMC single is beatable, anyone can get lucky. Unless you're unlucky enough to get a distance-20 position for your scramble (which is pretty unlikely), there is a sub 20 solution for every scramble.


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## Lucas Garron (Aug 22, 2014)

One thing I've learned from 8 years of cubing is that it is surprisingly hard to predict what's "safe" and what the "limits" for something are.

You can make some sensible observations, but I wouldn't bet on anything.

I do find it surprising is that Feliks is consistently so good at many things. After Matyas Kuti, I expected that every event will require a lot of specialization, and that the tops of the rankings would usually be close. (Sure, the WR would jump every now and then, but the top 10 times would mostly just inch down.) Erik's "basic speed" theory has proven more relevant instead.


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## Bob (Aug 22, 2014)

Skewb safe? Really? I think the event is too new and will be broken again relatively soon...


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## goodatthis (Aug 22, 2014)

Bob said:


> Skewb safe? Really? I think the event is too new and will be broken again relatively soon...



3.15 is pretty tough, I think it's going to be lolscrambles from here on out if that's to be broken. I'm pretty sure that it hasn't been entered into the WCA database yet though, so if you're thinking about the 4.5x, I agree with you on that.


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## Robert-Y (Aug 22, 2014)

Cale S said:


> I agree with FMC and multi BLD being safe, as well as 2x2 single, 4x4 single, skewb average, square-1 single, and megaminx single.
> WRs I think are unsafe are pyraminx average (because Drew) and 4BLD.


Yes I agree with most of these. Square-1 in particular. I think on most scrambles, even if you rehearse your solution enough, you probably couldn't get sub 7.
Same goes to 2x2x2 single.


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## DeeDubb (Aug 22, 2014)

Cale S said:


> I agree with FMC and multi BLD being safe, as well as 2x2 single, 4x4 single, skewb average, square-1 single, and *megaminx single*.
> WRs I think are unsafe are pyraminx average (because Drew) and 4BLD.



Megaminx Single - If Yu Da Hyun gets a chance, she could break it.

As for safe records, do we define "safe" as safely set at their current score, or safe from someone other than the current holder to take it? Because Maskow is the only one who can beat his MBLD, and Feliks seems to be the only one who can take 3x3 average.


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## blade740 (Aug 22, 2014)

Robert-Y said:


> Yes I agree with most of these. Square-1 in particular. I think on most scrambles, even if you rehearse your solution enough, you probably couldn't get sub 7.
> Same goes to 2x2x2 single.



Square-1 single is not safe. Look at 2nd place.


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## cubingallday (Aug 22, 2014)

3x3 should be broken soon (Mats or Feliks..)
Felik's has already got close...corner twist


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## Tom606060 (Aug 22, 2014)

blade740 said:


> Square-1 single is not safe. Look at 2nd place.


Look at the average of the guy in second place.


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## SolveThatCube (Aug 22, 2014)

2x2 WR single needs to go!


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## Robert-Y (Aug 22, 2014)

Tom606060 said:


> Look at the average of the guy in second place.


No, I think he is right. But what point are you trying to make anyway?


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## Coolster01 (Aug 22, 2014)

2x2 average, pyra average, and skewb single can be beaten pretty easily with abit of luck.

4x4 is safe. xD


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## rybaby (Aug 22, 2014)

cubingallday said:


> 3x3 should be broken soon (Mats or Feliks..)
> Felik's has already got close...corner twist



I think quite a few people have potential to break 3x3x3 single. Considering single times can depend a lot on luck, if a sub 9 cuber gets a good F2L then some skip the solve could be a 5. Feliks is probably most likely to break it, but imo Alex and Bill, too.


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## goodatthis (Aug 22, 2014)

Yeah, with an LL skip a lot of people are in contention for a 3x3 single WR.


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## kcl (Aug 22, 2014)

Bob said:


> Skewb safe? Really? I think the event is too new and will be broken again relatively soon...



Nope. Just from experience with the event, (I average low 4) 3.15 will take some seriously easy scrambles and a good solver to beat.


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## kunparekh18 (Aug 22, 2014)

Square-1 average is quite safe.


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## MTGjumper (Aug 22, 2014)

I think square-1 single is quite safe. I did 1300 solves prior to Euros, and had 4 sub-WR singles, one of which was a lolscramble.


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## Sajwo (Aug 22, 2014)

Safe:
- 3x3 average
- Megaminx single
- Pyraminx single
- Square-1 average
- Square-1 single
- Skewb average
- 3x3 MBLD

Unsafe:
- 2x2 single
- 2x2 average
- 3BLD single
- 3BLD average
- 3x3 WF average
- Pyraminx average
- Clock average
- Clock single
- Skewb single
- 7x7 average
- 4BLD
- 5BLD


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## TMOY (Aug 22, 2014)

MTGjumper said:


> I think square-1 single is quite safe. I did 1300 solves prior to Euros, and had 4 sub-WR singles, one of which was a lolscramble.



Depends on how you define "safe". From the OP:



ryanj92 said:


> If we define a 'safe' WR as one which very few people are likely to beat



With that definition, square-1 single WR is definitely not safe. Even I could break it with a lolscramble.


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## Sajwo (Aug 22, 2014)

TMOY said:


> Depends on how you define "safe". From the OP:
> 
> 
> 
> With that definition, square-1 single WR is definitely not safe. Even I could break it with a lolscramble.



lolscrambles are unlikely


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## Dene (Aug 22, 2014)

Safest are obvious:
2x2 single, clock single, and FMC

Least safe? Very difficult to say... Perhaps both megaminx and 5x5 singles and averages.


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## ryanj92 (Aug 22, 2014)

Thanks for your responses, everyone 

I think when I thought about this the first time, I didn't consider luck as a factor so much, as every competitor has the same chance of getting a lolscramble in a competition (well, obviously overall it depends on how many solves each person does in comp but on a solve by solve basis at least). So I would call things like 2x2x2 single and 3x3x3 single at least a little unsafe, as even though the probability of them being beaten on any given scramble is quite small, there are many people who on an easy scramble (eg another 4 mover on 2x2x2) could beat the WR. Maybe I'm thinking about it in the wrong way, I don't know 

I guess an exercise would be to think about each WR, and think 'if this WR was broken, would i be able to guess who broke it?' if the answer is yes, that event is probably quite safe because there are not many people who could break it, and vice versa.


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## Berd (Aug 22, 2014)

I think the hardest WR to be is going to be MBLD. You just have to look in the video description on Maskows memo / exo per cube. Its insane...


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## CiaranBeahan (Aug 22, 2014)

Dene said:


> Safest are obvious: 2x2 single



I see a lot of people say this, but honestly I don't agree. There's a possibility that it will never be broken, but there's also the possibility that it will be broken this weekend.
Look at this year for example, there's been 5 sub 1's, 3 of which were sub .9, 1 of which was sub .8 . Rami also got .85 just +2. Ben Whitmore came .06 within breaking the 2x2 single. 
What I'm trying to say is that don't be fooled because it's the longest standing WR, it can still be broken any second!

Safest:

SQ-1 single
3x3 average
Skewb average
Multi Bld

Unsafe:
Pyra average
6x6 single & average
3x3 single
7x7 single & average


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## LucidCuber (Aug 22, 2014)

Bob said:


> Skewb safe? Really? I think the event is too new and will be broken again relatively soon...



This firstly, few people have really practised it, so there is a lot of undiscovered talent out there. Also simply by the fact that it is so new. I'm sure eventually we will get an average with 3/4 extremely lucky scrambles.


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## MTGjumper (Aug 22, 2014)

TMOY said:


> With that definition, square-1 single WR is definitely not safe. Even I could break it with a lolscramble.



Except since the move to random state, lolscrambles are much more unlikely. I had a 4.xx lolscramble in 1200 solves, but that was the only one, and it was significantly less easy than lolscrambles used to be (my solution was 11 twists, which turned out to be optimal).


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## kinch2002 (Aug 22, 2014)

LucidCuber said:


> This firstly, few people have really practised it, so there is a lot of undiscovered talent out there. Also simply by the fact that it is so new. I'm sure eventually we will get an average with 3/4 extremely lucky scrambles.


I predict sub-2 average by end of 2016. With several easy scrambles and a fast solver of course
People will be 1-looking a ton of 'normal' scrambles by then


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## MirzaCubing (Aug 22, 2014)

Safe:
5x5 single and average
4x4 single 
Skewb average
Pyraminx single
3x3 average
6x6 single
MBLD

Unsafe:
3x3 single
2x2 average
3BLD average
Pyraminx average
6x6 average
7x7 average
4BLD
5BLD


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## antoineccantin (Aug 22, 2014)

I'm actually surprised that nobody even mentioned OH WR average yet. Is it in the middle?


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## Ninja Storm (Aug 22, 2014)

antoineccantin said:


> I'm actually surprised that nobody even mentioned OH WR average yet. Is it in the middle?



ain't nobody breaking that


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## henrysavich (Aug 22, 2014)

From Least to Most Safe

Skewb Single - If I've broken it at home, there is no way it will last past 2014
Pyra Average - Drew is good enough to break it, he just needs a few more oppurtunities
Feet Average - Camphana is still consistently improving, so we will see him break the average again
4BLD - Ollie
5BLD - See above
2x2 Average - Chris Olson is easily fast enough, Lucas or Rami could as well
2x2 Single - A lot of people are saying this is safe, but there has been scrambles since trentin 2011 that have potential, people just weren't there
7x7 Single - There are so many people who could possibly break this,- Lin, Feliks, Bence, Kevin
3BLD Single - Someone is going to smash the record with a sub 20
6x6 Average - Kevin can break it, probably pretty easily
3x3 Single - Feliks is overdue for this one
Mega Single - Simon or Yu Da-Hyun
FMC Average - I forsee a high 24 in the near future
Clock Average - I don't know much about clock, but it looks like Evan Liu could surpass it still
Pyraminx single - 1.3 is hard to beat without a really lucky scramble, and a fast solver
7x7 Average - same as single, but slightly harder
5x5 Single - Feliks, again, could do it
3x3 Average - It is extremely safe from being broken by anyone but Feliks, but Feliks has a good chance
OH Single - Cantin or Pleskowicz could break this if they had a lucky scramble
3BLD Mean - Just because of how uncommon means are, if Maskow did a safe mean just for the WR, he possibly could
OH Average - Most likely Pleskowicz, but it may take a while
Clok Single - Again, I don't much about clock, so this is a rough estimate
6x6 Single - I don't know how common sub 1:40's are for Kevin, I'm estimating 1 in 20 maybe?
4x4 Average - I think only Sebastian could beat it at this point, and that would still require some luck
5x5 Average - Feliks is the only contender, and I think it will take a while for him to beat it
MBLD - Maskow may,I think 41/41 is really good for him
Sq1 Single - Bingliang could, square 1 solves have the potential to be very lucky
Feet Single - maybe I'm underestimating Gabriel, but 25 single for a 30 avg seems fairly lucky
4x4 Single - It would require a lot of luck, and either Feliks or Sebastian, maybe KC3
FMC Single - Just because 19 is so much harder than 20
Mega Average - I'm still wondering how Louis got the current one
Sq1 average - Only Bingliang, and that still requires some luck
Skewb average - So much luck in the current one, I think it will last at least to mid 2015, probably longer


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## Stefan (Aug 22, 2014)

Magic is safest.


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## IRNjuggle28 (Aug 22, 2014)

Ninja Storm said:


> ain't nobody breaking that



I wouldn't have thought that. Kaleta isn't the best in the world at it, and an 11 second AO5 isn't that amazing. The next 14 results are all sub 13 and none of those 14 results are Przemyslaw. Antoine and Michal and Feliks could all break that.


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## Sajwo (Aug 22, 2014)

IRNjuggle28 said:


> I wouldn't have thought that. Kaleta isn't the best in the world at it, and an 11 second AO5 isn't that amazing. The next 14 results are all sub 13 and none of those 14 results are Przemyslaw. Antoine and Michal and Feliks could all break that.



Przemysław can break it as well, but with bigger propability. He's averaging at home ~12. Have you seen Antoine's results on Facebook? He's barely sub14. Michał won't get WR average (I would say that he's more capable of WR single, he's getting 8s quite often). Don't know how fast is Feliks at home


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## XTowncuber (Aug 22, 2014)

MirzaCubing said:


> Pyraminx single


okso I have done sup 7 TPS in comp at least twice that I know of. 7 TPS*1.35 seconds= about 9.5 moves, which is also not that uncommon. With say a 7 move scramble, only 5.2 TPS is required. Pyra single will be broken again in the next 1-2 years. Maybe not immediately, but someone will get it.


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## Sajwo (Aug 22, 2014)

henrysavich said:


> From Least to Most Safe
> 
> *1. 5BLD
> 1. 4BLD *
> ...



I've changed the order a little bit

Bolded are already beaten WRs


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## CHJ (Aug 23, 2014)

Sajwo said:


> I've changed the order a little bit



surely mega should be less safe, yu da hyun hasn't been to a comp in a while


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## antoineccantin (Aug 23, 2014)

IRNjuggle28 said:


> I wouldn't have thought that. Kaleta isn't the best in the world at it, and an 11 second AO5 isn't that amazing. The next 14 results are all sub 13 and none of those 14 results are Przemyslaw. Antoine and Michal and Feliks could all break that.



IMO Przemyslaw might actually be the fastest in the world right now. Michal has gotten slower, me too and Feliks a little as well.



Sajwo said:


> Przemysław can break it as well, but with bigger probability. He's averaging at home ~12. Have you seen Antoine's results on Facebook? He's barely sub14. Michał won't get WR average (I would say that he's more capable of WR single, he's getting 8s quite often). Don't know how fast is Feliks at home



You saw my OH note? Did you see that my last avg100 was 13.25? 
But yeah, you're probably right about most of this. I am practicing though, and hope to be in contention again soon.



CHJ said:


> surely mega should be less safe, yu da hyun hasn't been to a comp in a while



That doesn't mean me she'll have one soon 

Other than her, I think it's quite safe. I don't think Simon, Balint, Oscar or Chris have been practicing all the much recently. Louis isn't averaging anywhere near that either, so I highly doubt he'd be able to beat it again. I actually wouldn't be surprised if Sydney would get the next megaminx WR, she's improving quite fast and has lots of steam.


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## IRNjuggle28 (Aug 23, 2014)

antoineccantin said:


> IMO Przemyslaw might actually be the fastest in the world right now. Michal has gotten slower, me too and Feliks a little as well.



I'm sure you know people's OH stats better than me, but you and Feliks both just got low 12 averages in US nats... neither of you can be that far away from it, can you?


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## MirzaCubing (Aug 23, 2014)

XTowncuber said:


> okso I have done sup 7 TPS in comp at least twice that I know of. 7 TPS*1.35 seconds= about 9.5 moves, which is also not that uncommon. With say a 7 move scramble, only 5.2 TPS is required. Pyra single will be broken again in the next 1-2 years. Maybe not immediately, but someone will get it.



I mostly based my predications on what is safe/unsafe for the rest of the year. But you could prove that prediction wrong this weekend


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## Dene (Aug 23, 2014)

CiaranBeahan said:


> I see a lot of people say this, but honestly I don't agree. There's a possibility that it will never be broken, but there's also the possibility that it will be broken this weekend.



I don't think so... Even with a four move scramble, someone has to execute it perfectly to even have a chance. I think you're underestimating just how quick 0.69s is. It's hard enough to pick a puzzle up and execute 4 moves in that time even at home...


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## TimMc (Aug 23, 2014)

Skewb (average) if it gets cancelled like Magic, but it won't because 2x2...

EDIT: It'll get broken because lol-scrambles will happen and some cubers get faster and faster. Imagine how fast people will be at Skewb in 30 years, like 3x3, if it lasts that long.


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## blade740 (Aug 23, 2014)

MTGjumper said:


> Except since the move to random state, lolscrambles are much more unlikely. I had a 4.xx lolscramble in 1200 solves, but that was the only one, and it was significantly less easy than lolscrambles used to be (my solution was 11 twists, which turned out to be optimal).



It's not a matter of if, but when. There are easily 20 people today who could get WR single on the right scramble, if not more. Amazing scrambles are less common than they used to be, but they still exist with random-state scrambles, and one will pop up in the right place at the right time eventually. I wouldn't call that "safe".


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## antoineccantin (Aug 23, 2014)

IRNjuggle28 said:


> I'm sure you know people's OH stats better than me, but you and Feliks both just got low 12 averages in US nats... neither of you can be that far away from it, can you?



They were both really good averages.
I also take back what I said about Michal being slow. He just got 11.27 UWR avg12...


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## Carrot (Aug 23, 2014)

antoineccantin said:


> IMO Przemyslaw might actually be the fastest in the world right now. Michal has gotten slower, me too and Feliks a little as well.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Hey hey hey! I will personally make sure that Sydney is never in the game for mega WR


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## Dene (Aug 24, 2014)

And the winner is... 5bld!


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## antoineccantin (Aug 24, 2014)

Dene said:


> And the winner is... 5bld!



I think 4BLD was a little before.


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## Divineskulls (Aug 24, 2014)

Carrot said:


> Hey hey hey! I will personally make sure that Sydney is never in the game for mega WR



I won't even let Sydney get faster than me, I'll practice more.


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## yoinneroid (Aug 24, 2014)

antoineccantin said:


> I think 4BLD was a little before.



but previous 4bld is ollie as well


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## CriticalCubing (Aug 24, 2014)

Safe: 333 WR, 2x2 WR and 5x5 WR Skewb WR
Unsafe: 5BLD 4BLD Pyraminx


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## Sajwo (Aug 24, 2014)

antoineccantin said:


> I think 4BLD was a little before.



It was the same day.. 5BLD WR has been more improved than 4BLD WR (4.90% vs. 3.58%) which means that 4BLD WR was actually safer than 5BLD WR


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## Ollie (Aug 24, 2014)

Sajwo said:


> It was the same day.. 5BLD WR has been more improved than 4BLD WR (4.90% vs. 3.58%) which means that 4BLD WR was actually safer than 5BLD WR



define safe


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## TDM (Aug 24, 2014)

Ollie said:


> define safe


There's a definition in the op


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## Ollie (Aug 24, 2014)

TDM said:


> There's a definition in the op



which has nothing to do with the statistic (which was my point )

If Multi BLD and Pyraminx are both beaten by 1% on the same day, it tells you nothing about how 'safe' the world records were prior.


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## TDM (Aug 24, 2014)

Ollie said:


> which has nothing to do with the statistic (which was my point )
> 
> If Multi BLD and Pyraminx are both beaten by 1% on the same day, it tells you nothing about how 'safe' the world records were prior.


Yeah, I did think that... I just didn't realise that was what you were referring to, and thought you hadn't seen it.


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## SirWaffle (Aug 26, 2014)

antoineccantin said:


> Other than her, I think it's quite safe. I don't think Simon, Balint, Oscar or Chris have been practicing all the much recently. Louis isn't averaging anywhere near that either, so I highly doubt he'd be able to beat it again. I actually wouldn't be surprised if Sydney would get the next megaminx WR, she's improving quite fast and has lots of steam.



<3 this soooooo much, i must live up to this post :3



Carrot said:


> Hey hey hey! I will personally make sure that Sydney is never in the game for mega WR


How so? 


Divineskulls said:


> I won't even let Sydney get faster than me, I'll practice more.


Hehehehe, imam beat you nick and there aint nothing you can do bout it ;P


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## XTowncuber (Aug 26, 2014)

SirWaffle said:


> How so?



When you get a world record, he's going to take some screenshots, do some mathematical analysis, and convince the board that it's a DNF.


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## antoineccantin (Aug 26, 2014)

XTowncuber said:


> When you get a world record, he's going to take some screenshots, do some mathematical analysis, and convince the board that it's a DNF.



looool
Totally 

Just don't film it!


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## cubeflip (Aug 26, 2014)

Safe:
Magic
Master magic

Unsafe:
All the BLD records broken this weekend


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## (X) (Aug 26, 2014)

XTowncuber said:


> When you get a world record, he's going to take some screenshots, do some mathematical analysis, and convince the board that it's a DNF.



Oooooooooooooh shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii.......
you mad bro?


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## DeeDubb (Aug 26, 2014)

XTowncuber said:


> When you get a world record, he's going to take some screenshots, do some mathematical analysis, and convince the board that it's a DNF.



I was gonna make that joke earlier, I'm glad you're the one to do it though, haha.


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## SolveThatCube (Aug 28, 2014)

Unsafe:

3x3 single and possibly avg
5x5 avg
Mega avg
Pyra avg
Clock single and avg
Skewb single
7x7 avg
4BLD single


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## sneze2r (Aug 28, 2014)

unsafe:

5x5 and 5BLD(if MoYu will release their 5x5 soon)
7x7 avg
3bld
7x7 avg

safe:

multiblind
fm single
sq-1


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## SolveThatCube (Aug 28, 2014)

sneze2r said:


> unsafe:
> 
> 5x5 and 5BLD(if MoYu will release their 5x5 soon)
> 7x7 avg
> ...



You've got it twice dude.


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## Forte (Aug 29, 2014)

XTowncuber said:


> When you get a world record, he's going to take some screenshots, do some mathematical analysis, and convince the board that it's a DNF.


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## ajayd (Aug 29, 2014)

Forte said:


> http://assets.diylol.com/hfs/e31/89...could-use-your-salt-3ce32c.jpg?1340171379.jpg



http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=salt the fries

I don't get it.


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## dbax0999 (Aug 29, 2014)

ajayd said:


> http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=salt the fries
> 
> I don't get it.



LOL "Salt the fries"

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=salty


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## tomatotrucks (Aug 29, 2014)

Pyraminx WR is unsafe. Drew Brads will beat it this year, I bet.


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