# Who do you think will get the first official sub 5 3x3 average?



## Megaminx lover (Feb 14, 2022)

This thread has 2 purposes.
1. To find who most people think will become the first sub-5 ao5 in comp
2. to find a mathematical method to find out who has the highest chance of doing so.


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## turtwig (Feb 14, 2022)

I feel like 28-30% in the next round is definitely too high for anyone. Tymon and Max have both competed in a decent number of rounds recently so if it were that likely they would've already done it. I think something like this would be hard to compute precisely, since I think there's the factor of people getting nervous in the last 1-2 solves after 3-4 very good solves and knowing they will break the WR and a very significant time barrier (which I think makes it generally harder to break records than their time distribution would otherwise suggest), which is hard to objectively quantify.

That being said, Max probably has a slightly lower global average. The fact that he has more records or accomplishments in general may help his nerves, as well. However, I find that Tymon has more variation in his times. He seems to get a lot more sub-5's. According to the WCA stat page, he indeed has more sub-5's than Max, although that might be because he has competed more in the past year (on the other hand, Max's count includes more sub-5's done before Tymon was at the level he is now). According to Jonatan Klosko's WCA stat page, while Max has a slightly better average of 50 and 100, Tymon has a better average of 25, 12, and of course 5, lending credence to my theory that his times are more varied (which would help him get better small averages, since he can be "luckier" in the short term). For that reason, I find myself leaning towards Tymon. Also, Tymon seems to be competing more than Max, although that could easily change in the coming months.

EDIT: I did some simple simulations
I took all of Max and Tymon's solves from 2021 and 2022. For Max there were 90 (14 rounds) and for Tymon there were 175 (35 rounds). Max's mean and standard deviation were 5.88 and 0.68, approximately, and for Tymon we have 6.06 and 0.93. Indeed, Tymon average slightly slower but has much higher variance. I then generated random times assuming a normal distribution. In a sample of 10,000,000 averages, Tymon "got" 84,778 sub-5 averages while Max got 33,343. In other words, we could say Tymon has a 0.8% chance of getting a sub-5 average in any given round and Max has a 0.3% chance. This seems to support my theory that Tymon has better odds due to his highly varied performance. I find it surprising that Tymon managed to get an average so close to sub-5 in 35 rounds, given the simulation gives it <1% chance. Although, I'd say the "real" probably is probably at most 1-2% for either person given neither actually has a sub-5 average after 49 rounds.


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## J41 (Feb 15, 2022)

I would guess Tymon then Max, but I reckon Matty is also a chance.


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## qwr (Feb 15, 2022)

Your math is misguided. Poisson distributions model events happening over time at a certain rate, such as radioactive decay. Instead, we have comps occurring at known dates, and for the sake of simplicity we can model solve times as independent draws from some solving time distributions. (Classical statistical distributions assume independence which is almost certainly not the case for comp solves as time series data as we see over time solvers are improving (distribution shift), and in the short term you could have correlated good and bad days. But the independence assumption is frequently used anyway and could still give accurate results. There is a lot of theory on time series data but it's probably not worth studying unless you will do statistics actively in your career.)


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## Megaminx lover (Feb 15, 2022)

Thanks for all the feedback, I will repurpose this thread while seeing if there is another mathematical way to estimate the chances of getting a sub-5.


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## GenTheThief (Feb 15, 2022)

Feliks is not spelled with an "x"


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## abunickabhi (Feb 15, 2022)

I have a strong feeling Aryan Chabbra will be the first to get sub-5 average in official WCA comp.


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## abunickabhi (Apr 17, 2022)

Max Park nearly missed a sub-5 average today in 3x3 Officially when he got a counting 4.24 seconds solve!!!


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## Cuber2s (Apr 17, 2022)

abunickabhi said:


> Max Park nearly missed a sub-5 average today in 3x3 Officially when he got a counting 4.24 seconds solve!!!


I know. crazy


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## Marco Rouxbio (Apr 19, 2022)

Felix Zemdugs is the goat and will get it just like he got the first sub-6 and other stuff


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## StrategySam (Apr 19, 2022)

Me


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## NigelTheCuber (Apr 19, 2022)

tymon remember the 4.74 fail?


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## qwr (Apr 19, 2022)

tymon has the insane lookahead and solutions for it. but max park is a strong contender, probably equally so.


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## NigelTheCuber (Apr 21, 2022)

nigelthecuber said:


> tymon remember the 4.84 fail?


As in 4.74


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## Kane7 (Apr 21, 2022)

Yep, Ruihang might not get new records as now there's not many comps here in China.
But anyway the Xi'an Cherry Blossom is going to held, i'm willing Ruihang or Yusheng get better in the comp  
At last, i still think tymon will get the first sub5. LOL.


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## gsingh (Apr 21, 2022)

going off topic a bit, who do you think will get the first global sub-5 average(if anyone ever does)?


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## cuberswoop (Apr 21, 2022)

gsingh said:


> going off topic a bit, who do you think will get the first global sub-5 average(if anyone ever does)?


Tymon or some Asian cuber who we have never heard of


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## Garf (Apr 21, 2022)

cuberswoop said:


> Tymon or some Asian cuber who we have never heard of


Max.


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## Luke Solves Cubes (Apr 21, 2022)

Max or Tymon 50/50 but Max is getting better at pseudo slotting and that is tymon's strength of pseudo slotting


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## AJT17 (Apr 21, 2022)

Luke Solves Cubes said:


> Max or Tymon 50/50 but Max is getting better at pseudo slotting and that is tymon's strength of pseudo slotting


Oh no, Tymon is losing his advantages against Max


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## DuckubingCuber347 (Apr 21, 2022)

AJT17 said:


> Oh no, Tymon is losing his advantages against Max


Don't despair! Tymon still knows far more LSLL tricks than Max, I don't know how much ZBLL Max knows but it must be less than Tymon and Max doesn't go very far out of his way to force certain LL/EO cases.


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## Kane7 (Apr 23, 2022)

May 2, as the International Labour's Day holiday here. It lasts three days. (I'm not very sure that how many pros will attend)


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## Eli Apperson (Apr 23, 2022)

Imsoosm said:


> Cube4Fun League IV is happening in about 6 hours and Tymon is going! Can't wait to see how he does.


There are 4 rounds of 3x3 so he actually has a really good chance.


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## Imsoosm (Apr 24, 2022)

Scores are starting to enter!! Can't wait to see how Tymon did.


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## Imsoosm (Apr 24, 2022)

Tymon didn't do very well in round 1 
Average: 5.96

(8.27), 6.92, 5.38, (5.28), 5.58

Second round is in about 3 hours, I'll check in for more live updates.


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## NigelTheCuber (Apr 24, 2022)

lets hope for wr


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## cuberswoop (Apr 24, 2022)

Only 5.60 average for Tymon in the 3rd round. Only 1 sub 5 with a 4.96.

Stay tuned for finals.


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## cuberswoop (Apr 24, 2022)

Tymon got a 5.76 average with his best solve being a 5.26. 

No wr.

Depression.


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## Timona (Apr 24, 2022)

Are they streaming the event somewhere?


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## David Zemdegs (Apr 25, 2022)

GenTheThief said:


> Feliks is not spelled with an "x"


Because there is no 'x' in the Latvian alphabet and that's our heritage.


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## Imsoosm (Apr 25, 2022)

David Zemdegs said:


> Because there is no 'x' in the Latvian alphabet and that's our heritage.


...and I learn something new about Feliks every day


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## gsingh (May 21, 2022)

leo and sean are both at a comp rn




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i dont think sean has a chance but leo might get a sub-5 average


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## J41 (May 21, 2022)

That must be Leo's first comp in ages?


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## gsingh (May 21, 2022)

J41 said:


> That must be Leo's first comp in ages?


last one was in 2019


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## gsingh (May 21, 2022)

Imsoosm said:


> I'd say Sean has a bigger chance, both his single and averages are lower than Leo's. But who know what will happen.


i think sean stopped cubing for a while during the pandemic. hes been back around 3 weeks, and im pretty sure he isnt sub 7. leo is sub-6
i was going to say check out sean's youtube channel but remembered you dont have vpn lol


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## Imsoosm (May 21, 2022)

gsingh said:


> i think sean stopped cubing for a while during the pandemic. hes been back around 3 weeks, and im pretty sure he isnt sub 7. leo is sub-6
> i was going to say check out sean's youtube channel but remembered you dont have vpn lol


Wait a minute, Cube4Fun Zawiercie is today! Hope Tymon gets something good.

Edit:
Nevermind, 3x3 rounds are tomorrow.


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## gsingh (May 21, 2022)

Imsoosm said:


> Wait a minute, Cube4Fun Zawiercie is today! Hope Tymon gets something good.


max will be at colorado cubing weekend
its tymon vs max vs leo lol


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## gsingh (May 21, 2022)

oh wait tymon isnt competing until tomorrow at like this time
max is competing tomorrow morning
leo and sean in like 10 mins


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## ruffleduck (May 21, 2022)

Sad that Ruihang doesn't get a fair chance to get the first sub 5 ao5. Currently his at-home results are _at_ _least_ on par with that of Tymon and Max, and he has the skill necessary to get the record. It's just that in China there are no comps, and he hasn't went to one since his last comp several months ago (...where he set the WR ao5). He gets my pity vote.


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## NigelTheCuber (May 21, 2022)

I want tymon to get it lmfao


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## Imsoosm (May 21, 2022)

zzoomer said:


> Sad that Ruihang doesn't get a fair chance to get the first sub 5 ao5. Currently his at-home results are _at_ _least_ on par with that of Tymon and Max, and he has the skill necessary to get the record. It's just that in China there are no comps, and he hasn't went to one since his last comp several months ago (...where he set the WR ao5). He gets my pity vote.


Yeah well, China is placing lockdowns in every city with omicron outbursts, imo very pointless. Shanghai's been under lockdown for more than three months already, and they're putting up these metal fences around some people's buildings to prevent them from spreading the virus.


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## NigelTheCuber (May 21, 2022)

Imsoosm said:


> Yeah well, China is placing lockdowns in every city with omicron outbursts, imo very pointless. Shanghai's been under lockdown for more than three months already, and they're putting up these metal fences around some people's buildings to prevent them from spreading the virus.


So dumb. China sucks


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## NigelTheCuber (May 21, 2022)

nigelthecuber said:


> So dumb. China sucks


I'm not being racist but the government rules are so dumb and useless

Anyway back to the topic, I still think Tymon will get the first Sub 5 average but Max and Leo have a chance


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## NigelTheCuber (May 21, 2022)

Leo got a 5.92 average in 3x3 round 1


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## CornerTwisted (May 21, 2022)

I'm going Kim Roger Hoyland Larsen


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## Imsoosm (May 21, 2022)

HOLY CRAP
Leo comes back with a 5.92 average NR and a 4.77 single NR in the first round, beating both of Sean Patrick Villanueva's records!!


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## Imsoosm (May 21, 2022)

nigelthecuber said:


> I'm not being racist but the government rules are so dumb and useless
> 
> Anyway back to the topic, I still think Tymon will get the first Sub 5 average but Max and Leo have a chance


I'll have to say I agree with you on that point. I mean, even if they want to get rid of omicron, my community is now completely free of it, and we're still doing NAT tests and self-tests every day. The country itself is nice, it's the leaders being pointless and stupid.


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## Garf (May 21, 2022)

Imsoosm said:


> I'll have to say I agree with you on that point. I mean, even if they want to get rid of omicron, my community is now completely free of it, and we're still doing NAT tests and self-tests every day. The country itself is nice, it's the leaders being pointless and stupid.


Stupid Chinese communists and their fears/rules.
Not targeting you, just the leaders.


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## NigelTheCuber (May 21, 2022)

TheEpicCuber said:


> Stupid Chinese communists and their fears/rules.
> Not targeting you, just the leaders.


stupid dumb hilarious unreasonable crazy brainless chinese leaders


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## Imsoosm (May 23, 2022)

Nooooooo!
What has happened to Tymon??
He just got 1 mid-6 and 2 low-6 averages at League V

Last avg was a 5.54 with a 4.63 though

He got nice 4x4 and 5x5 scores though, for 4x4 finals he got a sub-20 (but also somehow has a 32 sec solve), and for 5x5 he got 2 38 solves and 1 36 solve. I don't even have a 5x5 so I don't really know the average times of world-class people, but sub-40 is really good right?


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## Timona (May 23, 2022)

Imsoosm said:


> Nooooooo!
> What has happened to Tymon??
> He just got 1 mid-6 and 2 low-6 averages at League V
> 
> ...


The pressure on him is too much


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## NigelTheCuber (May 23, 2022)

Timona said:


> The pressure on him is too much


Yeah. I'm calling it on max.

maybe it was me who posted those and he read them and got scared


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## NigelTheCuber (May 23, 2022)

Imsoosm said:


> Nooooooo!
> What has happened to Tymon??
> He just got 1 mid-6 and 2 low-6 averages at League V
> 
> ...


wr average is 38 by ... you guessed it


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## DynaXT (May 23, 2022)

Imsoosm said:


> Nooooooo!
> What has happened to Tymon??
> He just got 1 mid-6 and 2 low-6 averages at League V
> 
> ...



You expect way too much from Tymon. What if the scrambles weren’t the best? Maybe he’s just having an off day. A couple bad averages (that aren’t even bad, not many people consistently get sub-7 averages) don’t mean he’s not a top cuber.


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## Timona (May 23, 2022)

Imsoosm said:


> Nooooooo!
> What has happened to Tymon??
> He just got 1 mid-6 and 2 low-6 averages at League V
> 
> ...


5x5, anything sub-50 is world-class. Max get's sub-40 almost frequently.


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## PapaSmurf (May 23, 2022)

You're all here talking about TH, but Fahmi's gonna get it OH before that happens. Half the hands, half the time.


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## Imsoosm (May 23, 2022)

DynaXT said:


> You expect way too much from Tymon. What if the scrambles weren’t the best? Maybe he’s just having an off day. A couple bad averages (that aren’t even bad, not many people consistently get sub-7 averages) don’t mean he’s not a top cuber.


True.


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## Imsoosm (May 24, 2022)

PapaSmurf said:


> You're all here talking about TH, but Fahmi's gonna get it OH before that happens. Half the hands, half the time.


If you put it like that, Fahmi's likely to get the first sub-5 OH average than TH


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## qwr (May 24, 2022)

I put down tymon but maybe I should've put max


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## Imsoosm (May 24, 2022)

qwr said:


> I put down tymon but maybe I should've put max


In Max's most recent comp, he got 1 mid-6 avg, and two mid-5 avgs. (4.91 single too)
He didn't get any sub-20 for 4x4, but for 5x5 he was actually 0.61 seconds away from breaking the WR average (again), his 5x5 finals were 38.61.
Max seems to consistently get sub-1:20 for 6x6, and for 7x7 he is consistently sub-2:00


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## ender9994 (May 24, 2022)

Imsoosm said:


> In Max's most recent comp, he got 1 mid-6 avg, and two mid-5 avgs. (4.91 single too)
> He didn't get any sub-20 for 4x4, but for 5x5 he was actually 0.61 seconds away from breaking the WR average (again), his 5x5 finals were 38.61.
> Max seems to consistently get sub-1:20 for 6x6, and for 7x7 he is consistently sub-2:00



Max's big cube speed is unbelievable. His 7x7 average would be the fastest single not counting his own, and the same can almost be said for 6x6 as well. In terms of 3x3, both Max and Tymon account for 5 of the top 10 3x3 averages of all time. That being said, I feel like it is more down to the scrambles than the solver at this point. Either of them could get it on any given day.


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## Imsoosm (May 29, 2022)

Cube4Fun League VI Jaslo starts June 4-5!! Pyraminx is on 4th, and 3x3 is on 5th.


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## gsingh (May 29, 2022)

Tymon is currently at Glasgow Open 2022. 3x3 is tomorrow.




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## Imsoosm (May 29, 2022)

gsingh said:


> Tymon is currently at Glasgow Open 2022. 3x3 is tomorrow.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Starts in an hour for me!


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## Imsoosm (May 29, 2022)

Tymon's 3x3 average was 6.12 for R1, but his pyraminx is insane! He got a 1.95 average on Finals

R2 starts in around 2 hours


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## Imsoosm (May 29, 2022)

Tymon got a very nice average in R2!!
(4.88), 5.61, 5.39, 5.13, (7.79) ao5 = 5.38

I'm not staying around for finals (or maybe I will), they are half an hour away but I might need to go sleep


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## Imsoosm (May 30, 2022)

Tymon got a 5.95 ao5 for finals with no sub-5.


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## bulkocuber (May 30, 2022)

He'll never get the sub-5 average if you keep stalking him. Just forget about him and he will smash the WR.
That's how it works


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## NigelTheCuber (May 30, 2022)

bulkocuber said:


> He'll never get the sub-5 average if you keep stalking him. Just forget about him and he will smash the WR.
> That's how it works


Agreed


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## Imsoosm (May 30, 2022)

bulkocuber said:


> He'll never get the sub-5 average if you keep stalking him. Just forget about him and he will smash the WR.
> That's how it works


All right, all right. I won't be checking live updates on him anymore. In fact, I will COMPLETELY forget about Tymon and I'll only check WCA live for records.


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## Eli Apperson (May 30, 2022)

Matty +2ed out of WR avg yesterday. Would have been 4.9x


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## Luke Solves Cubes (May 30, 2022)

Eli Apperson said:


> View attachment 19459
> Matty +2ed out of WR avg yesterday. Would have been 4.9x


I calculated, 4.97 it would have been


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## J41 (May 30, 2022)

Eli Apperson said:


> View attachment 19459
> Matty +2ed out of WR avg yesterday. Would have been 4.9x


Ouch.


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## gsingh (May 30, 2022)

is there a video?
also what solve did he +2


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## Eli Apperson (May 30, 2022)

gsingh said:


> is there a video?
> also what solve did he +2


The 6


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## SpeedCubing RDJ (May 31, 2022)

J41 said:


> I would guess Tymon then Max, but I reckon Matty is also a chance.


Matty just got a 5 average in comp, nearly the world record due to a plus 2 on a 4 sec solve. Three of his solves were 4 secs, while two were 5s . I reckon Matty will get it first.


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## Imsoosm (May 31, 2022)

SpeedCubing RDJ said:


> Matty just got a 5 average in comp, nearly the world record due to a plus 2 on a 4 sec solve. Three of his solves were 4 secs, while two were 5s . I reckon Matty will get it first.


@Eli Apperson literally just posted that lol


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## SpeedCubing RDJ (May 31, 2022)

Imsoosm said:


> @Eli Apperson literally just posted that lol


HAHAHA i didn’t see!


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## J41 (May 31, 2022)

SpeedCubing RDJ said:


> Matty just got a 5 average in comp, nearly the world record due to a plus 2 on a 4 sec solve. Three of his solves were 4 secs, while two were 5s . I reckon Matty will get it first.


Matty is obviously absolutely top tier, but is still underrated in these types of discussions IMO.


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## fani (May 31, 2022)

Ok first of all FELIKS IS SPELLED WITH ''KS'' AND NOT ''X''. Now, I really think that it's tymon. But guys lets not forget about Leo Borromeo hes a young but a VERY GOOD speedcuber, so I think he has chances....


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## Imsoosm (Jun 1, 2022)

fani said:


> Ok first of all FELIKS IS SPELLED WITH ''KS'' AND NOT ''X''. Now, I really think that it's tymon. But guys lets not forget about Leo Borromeo hes a young but a VERY GOOD speedcuber, so I think he has chances....


True. Leo's got 2 pretty good sub-5 solves last comp, and broke both of Sean Patrick Villanueva's Philippine records.


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## gsingh (Jun 1, 2022)

im actually thinking matty now. everyone underestimated him a lot because he doesnt compete that often, and they dont know how much he has been improving. at his past comp, everyone expected him to get maybe 1 or 2 sub-5 solves, and like a 6 average. but he got a 5.25 average( 4.97 if he hadnt +2'd) and 6 sub-5 singles


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## Imsoosm (Jun 1, 2022)

gsingh said:


> im actually thinking matty now. everyone underestimated him a lot because he doesnt compete that often, and they dont know how much he has been improving. at his past comp, everyone expected him to get maybe 1 or 2 sub-5 solves, and like a 6 average. but he got a 5.25 average( 4.97 if he hadnt +2'd) and 6 sub-5 singles


Damn every time someone thinks a famous dude is going to get WR they fail and +2 somthing. Or like Jayden and Zayn, they dropped the cube.


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## NigelTheCuber (Jun 1, 2022)

Imsoosm said:


> Damn every time someone thinks a famous dude is going to get WR they fail and +2 somthing. Or like Jayden and Zayn, they dropped the cube.


If you watch my 2x2 ao12 I do that like 5 times lmfao.


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## IsThatA4x4 (Jun 1, 2022)

nigelthecuber said:


> If you watch my 2x2 ao12 I do that like 5 times lmfao.


If you think that's bad I don't think you want to see my OH solves...


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## CornerTwisted (Jun 2, 2022)

I've dropped the cube during 3BLD, and it sucks.


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## Imsoosm (Jun 2, 2022)

CornerTwisted said:


> I've dropped the cube during 3BLD, and it sucks.


That's actually very painful.


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## gsingh (Jun 2, 2022)

Imsoosm said:


> That's actually very painful.


what does fahmi average on 2h


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## NigelTheCuber (Jun 2, 2022)

gsingh said:


> what does fahmi average on 2h


high 3


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## Filipe Teixeira (Jun 2, 2022)

nigelthecuber said:


> high 3


high five
(how could you miss this joke)


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## CornerTwisted (Jun 2, 2022)

His first 2022 comp he will prob get a 4.6 average and a 3.5 single


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## gsingh (Jun 2, 2022)

@UNO_FASY what do you average?


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## Tabe (Jun 2, 2022)

Imsoosm said:


> Damn every time someone thinks a famous dude is going to get WR they fail and +2 somthing. Or like Jayden and Zayn, they dropped the cube.


Like Max Siauw with SQ-1 average. He +2'ed out of it a couple times and lost the WR because of misscrambles another time. Pretty sure there were other issues, too. Then he goes ahead and breaks it twice in the same comp, very nearly getting the first sub-5 average when the previous WR was 6.19.


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## gsingh (Jun 3, 2022)

Ok, so the 4 biggest competitors are Max, Matty, Ruihang, and Tymon.
According to SpeedcubeDB,

Average TPS:
Max-10.8
Ruihang-10.8
Matty-10.3
Tymon-9.5

Average Movecount:
Tymon-53.5
Matty-55.4
Max-58.7
Ruihang-59.1

Global Average:
Tymon's Average-5.65
Max's Average-5.44
Matty's Average-5.38 
Ruihang's Average-5.48


So, Matty should be most likely, because he has a lower global than Max, Tymon, and Ruihang.
But we haven't factored in Comp Nerves yet.
Comp averages are obviously a lot different than averages at home.

Comp Average from the last 3 Months :
Tymon-5.84
Max-5.70
Matty-6.00
Ruihang-N/A


So, according to Comp Averages, Max should be the first to get a sub-5 average. But that's not fair either, because Ruihang hasn't competed for a year.


There isn't really an easy way to calculate this. Matty has one Sub-5 fail. His 5.25 Official average would have been 4.93 without the +2.
Tymon also has a Sub-5 fail. His 5.15 average would have been 4.74 without the +2.
Max and Ruihang both have no Sub-5 fails.

If you have watches Matty's 5.25 video, you will see how many lock-ups he has. Without them, the average might have been WR and Sub-5 even with the +2. If Matty can fix his turning, I think he will have Sub-5 average in the bag. So overall, I say Matty.


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## gsingh (Jun 3, 2022)

@Imsoosm , you have something to say?


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## Imsoosm (Jun 3, 2022)

gsingh said:


> @Imsoosm , you have something to say?



"bad solves"


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## ruffleduck (Jun 3, 2022)

I feel bad I'm STILL the only Ruihang vote lol


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## gsingh (Jun 3, 2022)




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## Imsoosm (Jun 3, 2022)

gsingh said:


> View attachment 19489


That's only two 8 sec solves, and he has like five 7 sec solves, and at most 20 6 sec solves. Rest of his solves are mainly high 4 and low 5, there's also at least 20 3-low 4 solves


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## NigelTheCuber (Jun 4, 2022)

CornerTwisted said:


> His first 2022 comp he will prob get a 4.6 average and a 3.5 single


one handed.


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## qwr (Jun 4, 2022)

zzoomer said:


> I feel bad I'm STILL the only Ruihang vote lol


Not because of his ability but because China has been strict on lockdowns still


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## Imsoosm (Jun 4, 2022)

qwr said:


> Not because of his ability but because China has been strict on lockdowns still


It's been a bit better here, but the government still closes down a place as soon as they discover an omicron case there. I dunno which city Ruihang lives in, but regardless, China ain't opening comps.


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## Klaudiusz Szyprocinski (Jun 4, 2022)

I think Tymon has the highest chance because he competes quite often.


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## kubesolver (Jun 20, 2022)

It's really just around the corner. 

Tymon had a sub-5 ao5 fail this weekend (he needed 4.87 or lower on the 5th solve).




__





WCA Live


Platform for running WCA competitions and sharing live results with the world.




live.worldcubeassociation.org




Attempts​4.69, 5.44, 5.08, 5.04, 5.93
Average​5.19


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## Imsoosm (Jun 21, 2022)

kubesolver said:


> It's really just around the corner.
> 
> Tymon had a sub-5 ao5 fail this weekend (he needed 4.87 or lower on the 5th solve).
> 
> ...


Dangit did he fail that solve or was the scramble just bad?


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## LukasCubes (Jun 21, 2022)

Anthony Tindal said:


> Max.


i think the asian guy is fahmi


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## LukasCubes (Jun 21, 2022)

Marco Rouxbio said:


> Felix Zemdugs is the goat and will get it just like he got the first sub-6 and other stuff


um no i think hes coming to an end in terms of getting WRs


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## LukasCubes (Jun 21, 2022)

PapaSmurf said:


> You're all here talking about TH, but Fahmi's gonna get it OH before that happens. Half the hands, half the time.


YES! Fahmi is the most underrated cuber in the entire world rn


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## LukasCubes (Jun 21, 2022)

gsingh said:


> what does fahmi average on 2h


6 he told me, he averages 8 on oh tho


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## Blau (Jun 21, 2022)

Max will have 19 rounds of 3x3 in july and Tymon will have 11, so I guess we will see the long-awaited sub 5 average very soon

(max also has 15 rounds of 4x4, 13 rounds of 5x5, 9 rounds of 6x6 and 7x7, and 12 rounds of OH)


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## leolrg (Jun 21, 2022)

Let's give a most comprehensive analysis.



turtwig said:


> I took all of Max and Tymon's solves from 2021 and 2022. For Max there were 90 (14 rounds) and for Tymon there were 175 (35 rounds). Max's mean and standard deviation were 5.88 and 0.68, approximately, and for Tymon we have 6.06 and 0.93. Indeed, Tymon average slightly slower but has much higher variance. I then generated random times assuming a normal distribution. In a sample of 10,000,000 averages, Tymon "got" 84,778 sub-5 averages while Max got 33,343. In other words, we could say Tymon has a 0.8% chance of getting a sub-5 average in any given round and Max has a 0.3% chance. This seems to support my theory that Tymon has better odds due to his highly varied performance. I find it surprising that Tymon managed to get an average so close to sub-5 in 35 rounds, given the simulation gives it <1% chance. Although, I'd say the "real" probably is probably at most 1-2% for either person given neither actually has a sub-5 average after 49 rounds.


It is flawed because although Max do have a better global average during 2021 to 2022, Max competed much later than Tymon. What I mean is that max started competing in late 2021, while Tymon started in mid 2021. Thus, improvements need to be taken into account. If we only look at the global average of Tymon and Max at the same time(i.e after max has starting to compete), Tymon is by no means worse than Max. Plus, Tymon have more sub 5.5 average than Max, with his 4.73 +2 failed ao5. 

Tymon do have better chance of getting sub 5 average, partly due to his variance as @turwig mentioned.

Matty and Leo have much worse performance during comp comparing to Tymon and Max. 

Fahmi may not even have chance to compete, and his global average at home is low 6 according to himself in Reddit.

Ruihang definitely have chance if there is competition in China. His recent performance in unofficial online competition in China is insane, and according to himself, he now has global average of mid 5. However, there seems to be no chance of having comp anywhere recent in china due to covid.


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## DynaXT (Jun 21, 2022)

leolrg said:


> Fahmi may not even have chance to compete



Fahmi is going to CC Mini Sunday on July 3rd.


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## leolrg (Jun 21, 2022)

Oh my god than patric ponce's world record is going to broken


DynaXT said:


> Fahmi is going to CC Mini Sunday on July 3rd.


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## Eli Apperson (Jun 21, 2022)

LukasCubes said:


> YES! Fahmi is the most underrated cuber in the entire world rn


As far as OH goes, yes, I wouldn't say overall though.


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## qwr (Jun 21, 2022)

leolrg said:


> However, there seems to be no chance of having comp anywhere recent in china due to covid.


is he able to travel internationally? he may have to quarantine when he gets back tho, idk the current regulations in china


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## leolrg (Jun 22, 2022)

qwr said:


> is he able to travel internationally? he may have to quarantine when he gets back tho, idk the current regulations in china


He is "able" to travel internationally, but that will be too time-consuming and inconvenient. He has to do strict quarantine and also there are many other regulations. So he probably will not choose to travel internationally.


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## Imsoosm (Jun 22, 2022)

leolrg said:


> He is "able" to travel internationally, but that will be too time-consuming and inconvenient. He has to do strict quarantine and also there are many other regulations. So he probably will not choose to travel internationally.


Do any of you know which city Ruihang lives in?? I'm in Shanghai but I don't think he's near the area around here cuz most of his comps are in like mid-south and mid-west places.


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## qwr (Jun 22, 2022)

Imsoosm said:


> Do any of you know which city Ruihang lives in?? I'm in Shanghai but I don't think he's near the area around here cuz most of his comps are in like mid-south and mid-west places.







This video introduces Ruihang and Yezhen. I posted a rough translation by ear in the comments. I think it says at 0:20 he's from Zhejiang? Confirmed here:




__





Lishui boy smashes Rubik's cube Asian records


Xu Ruihang, a 13-year-old boy from Lishui city in East China's Zhejiang province, broke two Asian records in a World Cube Association, or the WCA Rubik Cube Competition staged in China's capital Beijing on April 4.



zhejiang.chinadaily.com.cn





You should post a full translation if possible because I missed some stuff.


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## gsingh (Jun 22, 2022)

Blau said:


> Max will have 19 rounds of 3x3 in july and Tymon will have 11, so I guess we will see the long-awaited sub 5 average very soon
> 
> (max also has 15 rounds of 4x4, 13 rounds of 5x5, 9 rounds of 6x6 and 7x7, and 12 rounds of OH)


wow! i bet a lot of records will be broken! also it will be nice to see tymon and max finally go head to head


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## Imsoosm (Jun 23, 2022)

Tymon's performance in Szczecin Open is really good. First round he got a 6.08 ao5 (best 4.96), not that great, but in second round he got 5.30 ao5 with TWO low 4s (counting 4.45 and a 4.22). Finals he got even better, a 5.19 ao5 with 4.69 single.


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## LukasCubes (Jun 23, 2022)

if ruihang learns what effeciency is then he will get it


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## Eli Apperson (Jun 23, 2022)

LukasCubes said:


> if ruihang learns what effeciency is then he will get it


If ruihang had comps*


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## gsingh (Jun 23, 2022)

i think it will almost definitely happen in july, with tymon and max going to so many comps.
time to make predictions: tymon, max, or matty?
i say tymon


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## leolrg (Jun 24, 2022)

LukasCubes said:


> if ruihang learns what effeciency is then he will get it


He is now learning efficiency. I saw some of the solves he do recently. He is now using pseudoslotting and other advanced techniques.


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## LukasCubes (Jun 24, 2022)

ok thrn h


leolrg said:


> He is now learning efficiency. I saw some of the solves he do recently. He is now using pseudoslotting and other advanced techniques.


hes getting it in his next comp probably then lolp


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## Timona (Jun 24, 2022)

LukasCubes said:


> ok thrn h
> 
> hes getting it in his next comp probably then lolp


Y'all are wilding. Just watch someone random from top 100 get it based on pureluck


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## Eli Apperson (Jun 24, 2022)

Timona said:


> Y'all are wilding. Just watch someone random from top 100 get it based on pureluck


That's what I think. There are so many very fast people capable of getting it, but all eyes are on tymon and max.


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## qwr (Jun 24, 2022)

Timona said:


> Y'all are wilding. Just watch someone random from top 100 get it based on pureluck


much more likely for the single. but anyone in the top ten could get it with a super lucky scramble set but I wouldn't count on it.
https://web.archive.org/web/2022060...eassociation.org/results/rankings/333/average (archive since WCA rankings are down currently)


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## gsingh (Jul 3, 2022)

did you guys know that the oh wr will be broken tomorrow


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## Eli Apperson (Jul 3, 2022)

gsingh said:


> did you guys know that the oh wr will be broken tomorrow


Yeah, Patrick has a comp and so does fahmi. I imagine one of them could definitely get it


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## LukasCubes (Jul 3, 2022)

Eli Apperson said:


> Yeah, Patrick has a comp and so does fahmi. I imagine one of them could definitely get it


its fahmi


gsingh said:


> did you guys know that the oh wr will be broken tomorrow


look above, its fahmi thats breaking it


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## Eli Apperson (Jul 3, 2022)

LukasCubes said:


> its fahmi
> 
> look above, its fahmi thats breaking it


We will see.


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## hyn (Jul 3, 2022)

fahmi got a 8.07 avg for 2h


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## gsingh (Jul 3, 2022)

hydynn said:


> fahmi got a 8.07 avg for 2h


that would have been ok for him... in oh


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## Eli Apperson (Jul 3, 2022)

LukasCubes said:


> its fahmi
> 
> look above, its fahmi thats breaking it


Welp, I guess nerves exist even for fahmi. Let's see how Patrick does


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## LukasCubes (Jul 3, 2022)

Eli Apperson said:


> Welp, I guess nerves exist even for fahmi. Let's see how Patrick does


patrick wont get it lol also fahmi has another comp on the 23rd so thats gonna be a record breaker


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## Eli Apperson (Jul 3, 2022)

LukasCubes said:


> patrick wont get it lol also fahmi has another comp on the 23rd so thats gonna be a record breaker


My guy, Fahmi isn't the only person in the world that's good at OH. Patrick is very capable of getting, as is Max and I'm sure a few others. You said OH wr today by fahmi for sure, that didn't happen, maybe just wait and see for the next comp.


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## LukasCubes (Jul 3, 2022)

Eli Apperson said:


> My guy, Fahmi isn't the only person in the world that's good at OH. Patrick is very capable of getting, as is Max and I'm sure a few others. You said OH wr today by fahmi for sure, that didn't happen, maybe just wait and see for the next comp.


ye i suck at predicting things but why not try lol


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## Eli Apperson (Jul 8, 2022)

Tymon has 3 rounds of 3x3 this Sunday, and ik this isn't related, but Patrick has two more rounds of OH at NAC, it's very possible that a wr will be broken this weekend.


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## LukasCubes (Jul 8, 2022)

Eli Apperson said:


> Tymon has 3 rounds of 3x3 this Sunday, and ik this isn't related, but Patrick has two more rounds of OH at NAC, it's very possible that a wr will be broken this weekend.


Idk about the wr tbh but maybe


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## gsingh (Jul 8, 2022)

Eli Apperson said:


> Tymon has 3 rounds of 3x3 this Sunday, and ik this isn't related, but Patrick has two more rounds of OH at NAC, it's very possible that a wr will be broken this weekend.


matty also has 4 round of 3x3, he could get it. he has been on fire for 6x6 and 7x7


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## Timona (Jul 30, 2022)

I think we know the answer now.


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## qwr (Jul 30, 2022)

I always believed in you Tymon. So did the rest of the forum apparently

Edit: 3000th message


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## bulkocuber (Jul 30, 2022)

He couldn't not get the sub-5 average with that many people voting him.


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## abunickabhi (Jul 30, 2022)

Tymon got it today!

https://forum.worldcubeassociation.org/t/wr-tymon-kolasinki-4-86-seconds-3x3-average/24082

Massive congrats to him.


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## Blau (Aug 7, 2022)

Imsoosm said:


> It's been a bit better here, but the government still closes down a place as soon as they discover an omicron case there. I dunno which city Ruihang lives in, but regardless, China ain't opening comps.


What actually happened is a kid competed in a wca comp in beijing but failed to podium. The parents want a refund, but the deadline has passed, so the parents got mad and reported the comp to the government for crowd gathering amid covid.


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## hyn (Aug 7, 2022)

Blau said:


> What actually happened is a kid competed in a wca comp in beijing but failed to podium. The parents want a refund, but the deadline has passed, so the parents got mad and reported the comp to the government for crowd gathering amid covid.


Where'd you get that info from?


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## Blau (Aug 7, 2022)

hyn said:


> Where'd you get that info from?


from multiple comments in various cubing videos on bilibili


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## qwr (Aug 7, 2022)

Blau said:


> What actually happened is a kid competed in a wca comp in beijing but failed to podium. The parents want a refund, but the deadline has passed, so the parents got mad and reported the comp to the government for crowd gathering amid covid.


lmao if that's true that's petty as hell


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## Blau (Aug 8, 2022)

qwr said:


> lmao if that's true that's petty as hell



more accurate situation:
the delegates and the organizers received an email from a competitor (potential with parents) requesting to cancel the registration and demanding a full refund(around 200 RMB) because of the domino effects of Coivd, personal worries, and government restrictions.
At that time, Beijing was classified to be a low risk of covid and there had been 391 days without a covid case in the region.
The preparation for the competition was finished and the refund deadline has passed, so the request for a full refund was rejected, but a refund for the companion ticket for the guest was available. The competitor, or potentially parent, got mad and reported the competition to the Beijing police department for including foreign competitors and Chinese competitors from other regions of higher risk of covid and with unknown/suspicious travel plans. At 6 pm the day before the competition, the organizers received a call from the police and went to the police station for investigation.
At the same time, the Chinese government just released a notice encouraging citizens to stay in their province or city. So the department asked the organizers to cancel the comp, otherwise, they might have to stop the competition in front of a bunch of kids.
At 11 pm that day, 5 hours from the call, all competitors received an email regarding the cancellation of the competition.
It is funny how all other events at the venue(hotel) continued, including graduation ceremonies, weddings, and business conferences, only the WCA competition was canceled.
And came to me as a shock that there was a 1 million RMB lost for venue renting, travel plans and hotel fees of parents and competitors.
There are poor families spending money equivalent to a one-month living fee hoping to compete and a lot of aspiring cubers practiced hard.
For example, Yiheng practiced >500 3x3 solves every day for 10 days, getting 5.9 ao100.

but it is still true that parents report WCA competitions because of their child not having a podium or a "rivalry" (a threat) got podium.

source: https://www.bilibili.com/read/cv12493472


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## Eli Apperson (Aug 8, 2022)

Blau said:


> more accurate situation:
> the delegates and the organizers received an email from a competitor (potential with parents) requesting to cancel the registration and demanding a full refund(around 200 RMB) because of the domino effects of Coivd, personal worries, and government restrictions.
> At that time, Beijing was classified to be a low risk of covid and there have been 391 days without a covid case in the region.
> The preparation for the competition was finished and the refund deadline has passed, so the request for a full refund was rejected, but a refund for the companion ticket for the guest was available. The competitor, or potentially parent, got mad and reported the competition to the Beijing police department for including foreign competitors and Chinese competitors from other regions of higher risk of covid and with unknown/suspicious travel plans. At 6 pm the day before the competition, the organizers received a call from the police and went to the police station for investigation.
> ...


Holy moly. Every time I think humans can't get any more stupid, they find a way.


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## Kaedenthecuber (Aug 8, 2022)

didnt tymon get 4.86 average?


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## CornerTwisted (Aug 8, 2022)




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## Imsoosm (Aug 8, 2022)

Blau said:


> more accurate situation:
> the delegates and the organizers received an email from a competitor (potential with parents) requesting to cancel the registration and demanding a full refund(around 200 RMB) because of the domino effects of Coivd, personal worries, and government restrictions.
> At that time, Beijing was classified to be a low risk of covid and there had been 391 days without a covid case in the region.
> The preparation for the competition was finished and the refund deadline has passed, so the request for a full refund was rejected, but a refund for the companion ticket for the guest was available. The competitor, or potentially parent, got mad and reported the competition to the Beijing police department for including foreign competitors and Chinese competitors from other regions of higher risk of covid and with unknown/suspicious travel plans. At 6 pm the day before the competition, the organizers received a call from the police and went to the police station for investigation.
> ...


Thanks for that info, but is there any information on when competitions would open again?

also that parent is dumb as hell what, why the heck would you register if you're so scared of covid???!


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## Blau (Aug 8, 2022)

Imsoosm said:


> Thanks for that info, but is there any information on when competitions would open again?
> 
> also that parent is dumb as hell what, why the heck would you register if you're so scared of covid???!


from cubers in Chinese cubing forums:
2 competitions have been canceled because of malicious reports, there had been a great loss in money, and organizers are scared to organize new comps for now.
The 2 comps I am referring to:
https://www.worldcubeassociation.org/competitions/BeijingSummer2021
https://www.worldcubeassociation.org/competitions/JieyangOpen2021


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## PapaSmurf (Aug 12, 2022)

Throwback to these old predictions...



Stefan was correct, even if unknowingly. Thanks to @Athefre for the screenshots. Here's to the next 5 second barrier being broken of sub 0! But seriously, sub 4 seems impossible now, but it will almost certainly become possible. How, I have no idea, my prediction being someone insane at FreeZZ or something like that. High tech, difficult fingertricks, insane lookahead. Or maybe vanilla CFOP just done really well. We dunno.


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## gsingh (Aug 12, 2022)

Blau said:


> from cubers in Chinese cubing forums:
> 2 competitions have been canceled because of malicious reports, there had been a great loss in money, and organizers are scared to organize new comps for now.
> The 2 comps I am referring to:
> https://www.worldcubeassociation.org/competitions/BeijingSummer2021
> https://www.worldcubeassociation.org/competitions/JieyangOpen2021


A little unrelated, but do you know anything about that institute thingy?
Ying's cube or something like that.


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## Filipe Teixeira (Aug 12, 2022)

#emotional damage


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## Imsoosm (Aug 13, 2022)

gsingh said:


> A little unrelated, but do you know anything about that institute thingy?
> Ying's cube or something like that.


What are the videos talking about, I can't watch youtube


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## gsingh (Aug 13, 2022)

A academy for cubing in Shanghai. I'm assuming that's why those kids are so good.


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## cuberswoop (Aug 13, 2022)

gsingh said:


> A academy for cubing in Shanghai. I'm assuming that's why those kids are so good.


I wonder what detention is like. 
"Now Ruihang, you failed to get a sub 4 average of 100 so go sit under a waterfall and do a 21x21 MBLD with feet average of 100 to make up for it."


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