# World Record Predictions for the year 2030



## Loser (Oct 21, 2019)

10 years and one day ago, the thread World Record predictions in the year 2020? was posted, which has since become one of the most viewed threads on Speedsolving, and produced some hilariously slow predictions. 

So let's make some more! Here's a copy paste for singles/averages in all events, and a few random things I added. Feel free to make other predictions, or skip those that you don't care about. For reference, there is currently 137-138k people that have competed.

Predictions for January 1st, 2030:
3x3: 
2x2: 
4x4: 
5x5: 
6x6: 
7x7: 
Blind: 
FMC: 
OH: 
Feet: 
Clock: 
Mega: 
Pyra: 
Skewb: 
Sq1: 
4BLD: 
5BLD: 
MBLD: 

New Events: 
Removed Events: 
Event Format Changes: 
Competitors in the WCA: 
Year in WCA ID of WC2029 winner: 
3x3 prize at WC2029 (2019 value):


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## Cubeguy11 (Oct 21, 2019)

I have one prediction:
Sub 5 3x3 world record average


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## Loser (Oct 21, 2019)

Predictions for January 1st, 2030:
3x3: 2.16/4.03
2x2: 0.31/0.94
4x4: 9.56/11.93
5x5: 20.31/24.56
6x6: 45.67/49.67
7x7: 1:12.23/1:17.84
Blind: 8.45/10.23
FMC: 15/19.33
OH: 4.56/7.67
Feet: 8.92/11.45
Clock: 1.89/3.11 (if not removed)
Mega: 14.56/19.45
Pyra: 0.67/1.23
Skewb: 0.77/1.22
Sq1: 2.34/4.44
4BLD: 25.67/29.55
5BLD: 1:01.23/1:09.45
MBLD: 99/102, 59:58

New Events: 2 of them, idk what
Removed Events: Clock
Event Format Changes: BLD is ao5
Competitors in the WCA: 1,234,567
Year in WCA ID of WC2029 winner: 2024
3x3 prize at WC2029 (2019 value): $15,000


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## RedstoneTim (Oct 25, 2019)

Predictions for January 1st, 2030:
3x3: 2.07/3.81
2x2: 0.29/0.78
4x4: 10.47/13.00
Blind: 8.19/11.45
FMC: 15/19.66
OH: 4.13/6.53
Mega: 17.89/21.07

New Events: Curvy Copter
Removed Events: Feet and Clock
Competitors in the WCA: 2 Million
Year in WCA ID of WC2029 winner: 2017

I'll predict that at that time, I will probably have stopped cubing altogether and won't get to see if my predictions were correct because I won't be interested anymore. I also guess that the 3x3 single will probably be a mish-mash of methods like the current one, probably from some CFOP person that is not over 10 years old at the time I'm writing this. There will be a lot more cubers in the future as well and ZB and Roux will be the most used methods of world class cubers.
Those are my thoughts, I'm probably off by quite a bit, but we'll see when time comes.


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## Daxton Brumfield (Oct 25, 2019)

Predictions for January 1st, 2030:
3x3: 2.84
2x2: .38
4x4: 14.90
5x5: 31.69
6x6: 56.77
7x7: 1:28.95
Blind:9.43
FMC: 15
OH: 4.23
Feet: n/a
Clock: n/a
Mega: 23.58
Pyra: .69
Skewb: .69
Sq1: 3.47
4BLD: 36.84
5BLD: 1:13.45
MBLD: 69/69 59:34

New Events: clock with feet
Removed Events: Feet, clock
Event Format Changes: smart cubes are allowed
Competitors in the WCA: 170,000
Year in WCA ID of WC2029 winner: Somebody who does not even have a wca profile rn
3x3 prize at WC2029 (2019 value): 6900 usd
I am bad at predicting things


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## Cubinwitdapizza (Oct 25, 2019)

Predictions for January 1st, 2030:
3x3: 2.15/4.37
2x2: 0.28/0.91
4x4: 10.7/14.83
5x5: 17.84/24.43
6x6: idk
7x7: idk
Blind: 10.7/13.6
FMC: 15/ 18
OH: 5.3/6
Feet: 12.47/19.4
Clock: 2.3/3
Mega: 22.4/25.98
Pyra: 0.5/1.01
Skewb: 0.6/1.8
Sq1: 3.1/5.3
4BLD: 43.5/50.4
5BLD: idk
MBLD: 74/80 58:57

New Events: curvy copter
Removed Events: feet, clock


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## PetrusQuber (Oct 25, 2019)

World record 3x3 average will be held by a Petrus user, and be sub 5.4
3x3 single will be the same
OH single will be the same
OH average will sub 9.2
FMC will be sub 18
I can’t say about much else, cos no experience, so
2x2 avg and single is sub 0.2
4x4 average will be a multiple of 4 when rounded to the nearest whole number
4x4 single will be a multiple of 4.7 when rounded to one decimal place
5x5
6x6
7x7
Blind
Feet
Clock
Mega
Pyra
Skewb
Sq1
4BLD
5BLD
All’s WR shall be amultiple of 3 when rounded to the nearest whole number


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## GAN 356 X (Oct 25, 2019)

I wonder if cubing will still be a thing in say, 50 years?


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## ThatLucas (Oct 25, 2019)

*Single:*
3x3: 1.2
2x2: 0.2
4x4: 6.9
5x5: 11.4
6x6: 21.2
7x7: 45.8
Blind: 8.9
FMC: 10
OH: 4.5
Feet: 6.8
Clock: 0.9, assuming clock will still be an event
Mega: 10.9
Pyra: 0.2
Skewb: 0.5
Sq1: 1.9
4BLD: 20.1
5BLD: 40.2
MBLD: 150+ points

*Average:*
3x3: 2.1
2x2: 0.8
4x4: 10.4
5x5: 18.5
6x6: 26.6
7x7: 51.4
Blind: 14.7
FMC: 15
OH: 7.6
Feet: 9.8
Clock: 1.8
Mega: 16.4
Pyra: 0.9
Skewb: 1.2
Sq1: 2.4
4BLD: 20.5
5BLD: 49.6
MBLD: Hmmmm

I know this prediction may seem too absurd, but that old thread in 2009 had predictions that were laughable today, so this will be my prediction.


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## Hazel (Oct 25, 2019)

Cubeguy11 said:


> I have one prediction:
> Sub 5 3x3 world record average


Sub-5? This is a decade. I say sub-4.5.


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## tx789 (Oct 25, 2019)

This is hard. People in have always underestimated how fast people would get. I think records will start to plateau by 2030 and winning big comps will become more and more important to people. That is all I am willing to predict.


The event list might change a little if Lucas Garron's tiers and ephemeral events get through.


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## Skittleskp (Oct 26, 2019)

I was looking at this the other day... thought it would be fun to link here.








World Record predictions in the year 2020?


What do you guys think the WR's are going to be in the year 2020? Cubing will definately be a lot different by then 2x2 - 3x3 - 4x4 - 5x5 - 6x6 - 7x7 - 3x3 BLD - 4x4 BLD - 5x5 BLD - 3x3 OH - 3x3 fewest moves - 3x3 w/ feet - Megaminx - Pyraminx - Square 1 -...




www.speedsolving.com


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## CyanSandwich (Oct 26, 2019)

Predictions for January 1st, 2030:
3x3: 2.78/4.22
2x2: 0.29/0.89
4x4: 13.01/16.00
5x5: 26.12/29.90
6x6: 44.45/48.03
7x7: 1:20.99/1:26.54
Blind: 9.78/13.95
FMC: 14/19.33
OH: 4.32/6.91
Feet: 11.99/14.33 (but most likely removed)
Clock: 2.56/3.67 (a bit less likely removed)
Mega: 16.14/19.13
Pyra: 0.84/1.41
Skewb: 0.83/1.39
Sq1: 3.08/4.07
4BLD: 41.22/48.78
5BLD: 1:28.31/1:37.69
MBLD: 69 points (71/73 59:40)

New Events: don't know, but there'll be 2 of them
Removed Events: Feet, clock
Event Format Changes: none
Competitors in the WCA: 420666
Year in WCA ID of WC2029 winner: 2025
3x3 prize at WC2029 (2019 value): $10,000


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## kirbzcitkatz (Oct 26, 2019)

sub 15 on 4x4


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## Dylan Swarts (Oct 26, 2019)

Most of these are pretty much very impossible, because many events have reached their limits or are very close to it.
I do say that multi-blind will still go a long way. I calculated very roughly that to do 60 cubes in an hour you would need to be able to do a cube in 1 minute or less on average. And since top 3blders do 3bld in 20 or less seconds, I believe that doing 40s per cube would enable you to do 90 cubes for multi. Maybe more. So I think something close to 90/90 multi in an hour


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## PetrusQuber (Oct 26, 2019)

GAN 356 X said:


> I wonder if cubing will still be a thing in say, 50 years?


Well, I’ll keep it up... I can go on the thread for older cubers by then. 
I wonder what cubes might have come out... A gts6m? A re-invention of the hualong? Valk 3 Power M Heavy, etc.


New prediction: I predict that person who was a sub 5.4 Petrus user and 3x3 avg WR holder will be yours truly.


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## Cubingcubecuber (Oct 26, 2019)

PetrusQuber said:


> Valk 3 Power M Heavy


LOL


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## BenChristman1 (Oct 26, 2019)

Predictions for January 1st, 2030:
3x3: 2.85
2x2: 0.4
4x4: 13
5x5: 24
6x6: 45
7x7: 1:00
Blind: 12
FMC: 14
OH: 4.5
Feet: Will not be an event
Clock: Will not be an event
Mega: 23
Pyra: 0.8
Skewb: 0.8
Sq1: 4
4BLD: 1:15
5BLD: 2:30
MBLD: 67/70

New Events: None
Removed Events: Feet, Clock
Event Format Changes: IDK
Competitors in the WCA: IDK how many there are now
Year in WCA ID of WC2029 winner: 2024
3x3 prize at WC2029 (2019 value): in U.S. dollars, $5,000


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## MEF227 (Oct 26, 2019)

3x3: 2.87/4.78
2x2: 0.39/0.99
4x4: 13.45/17.67
5x5: 29.76/35.36
6x6: 59.84/1:07.72
7x7: 1:25.64/1:34.56
Blind: 11.56/15.67
FMC: 14/19
OH: 6.32/7.90
Feet: N/A
Clock: N/A
Mega: 23.56/26.32
Pyra: 0.69/1.15
Skewb: 0.75/1.58 
Sq1: 3.67/5.34
4BLD: 53.95/1:00.76
5BLD: 2:15.78/3:04.53
MBLD: 73/75

New Events: Redi Cube
Removed Events: Feet and Clock
Event Format Changes: Further spectator distance
Competitors in the WCA: 189k


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## Cubingcubecuber (Oct 27, 2019)

BenChristman1 said:


> 4BLD: 1:15


That is worse than now


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## OreKehStrah (Oct 27, 2019)

Just off the top of my head, these are my predictions for singles January 1st, 2030 excluding decimal places beyond a certain point:
3x3: 3.2xy
2x2: 0.3xy
4x4: 13.xy
5x5: 29.xy
6x6: 51.xy
7x7: 1:39.xy
Blind: 10.xy
OH: 4.xy
Clock: 2.9xy
Mega: 19-21

I might try do some math to make some predictions later since I'm a math major lol


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## Hazel (Oct 27, 2019)

OreKehStrah said:


> Just off the top of my head, these are my predictions for singles January 1st, 2030 excluding decimal places beyond a certain point:
> 3x3: 3.2xy
> 2x2: 0.3xy
> 4x4: 13.xy
> ...


Tbh I think all of these are too slow. I bet your clock prediction, for example, will be beaten easily by 2025


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## BenChristman1 (Oct 27, 2019)

Cubingcubecuber said:


> That is worse than now


Oops sorry maybe 50 sec then


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## OreKehStrah (Oct 27, 2019)

Aerma said:


> Tbh I think all of these are too slow. I bet your clock prediction, for example, will be beaten easily by 2025


I’m sure they are, these are just reasonable to attain times for a placeholder while I try to do math to make a prediction lol


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## asacuber (Oct 27, 2019)

CFOP will go out of fashion


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## OreKehStrah (Oct 27, 2019)

asacuber said:


> CFOP will go out of fashion


I disagree, at least to an extent. I think that what is currently CFOP will pick up more and more advanced techniques and borrow traits from other methods, that all build on the foundation of traditional CFOP. I don’t think it’ll ever go away completely since it’s still obviously a good method, and no other method has reached close to the same amount of users, although part of it is simply availability of resources. People still use ZZ and Petrus so people will probably use CFOP for the next 50 years at least. That’s just my take though. Who knows, maybe all the dominant solvers will fade out of the community over time and generation of Roux solvers will start the true Rouxvolution lol


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## asacuber (Oct 27, 2019)

OreKehStrah said:


> I disagree, at least to an extent. I think that what is currently CFOP will pick up more and more advanced techniques and borrow traits from other methods, that all build on the foundation of traditional CFOP. I don’t think it’ll ever go away completely since it’s still obviously a good method, and no other method has reached close to the same amount of users, although part of it is simply availability of resources. People still use ZZ and Petrus so people will probably use CFOP for the next 50 years at least. That’s just my take though. Who knows, maybe all the dominant solvers will fade out of the community over time and generation of Roux solvers will start the true Rouxvolution lol



I should've made myself clear; I wanted to say that CFOP as we know it now will take on some major mutation. I agree with you.


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## Klaudiusz Szyprocinski (Oct 27, 2019)

3x3: 2.85 / 4.30
4x4: 14.40 / 17.50
5x5: 27.80 / 32.10
6x6: 51.00 / 57.50
7x7: 1:19:00 / 1:24:00
3BLD: 9.20 / 11.00
OH: 4.95 / 6.99
MBLD: 85 points

CFOP will remain to be superior method
Roux method will fall


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## parkertrager (Oct 27, 2019)

Predictions for January 1st, 2030:
3x3: 2.65 single 3.8 average either with zz or roux CFOP will be proven slower 
2x2: .31single .74 average and people will use a lot more methods and know a lot more algs than now 
4x4: 9.87 single 14.7 average 
5x5: 26.7 single 29 average with Yau or Hoya 
6x6: 47 single 53 average hardware will be as good as our current 3x3 hardware once again Hoya or Yau
7x7: 1:07 single 1:14 average Yau or Hoya again
Blind: it will actually be very similar but some people will know a lot of 5 style and I think people will be able to look at cube and just memorize it so 11.7 single 12.89 average 
FMC: Same single but tied and 20.33 mean 
OH: 3.7 single 4.9 average with zz or roux 
Feet: 8.7 single 11.6 average with zz 
Clock: sub 1 and sub 2 new method will be dsicovetd and used and hardware will be insane 
Mega: 17 single 24 average 
pyra: .38 single sub 1 average people will know a lot more this event has had a lot of new methods made in the last year and that will continue people will know 1000s of algs and know insane fingertricks and hardware will be amazing 
Skewb: 1.22 average .72 single more methods will be used and people will turn a lot better and average 11 moves 
Sq1: 2.12 single 4.3 average hardware will be a lot better and a new method will be used yet to be discovered 
4BLD: 39 single 52 average people will memo just by glancing at jt just like 3ld
5BLD: 1:04 single 1:15 average people will memo by glancing at it 
MBLD: 120 cubes 

New Events: none 
Removed Events: none
Event Format Changes: no stafkmats smart cubes only 
Competitors in the WCA: not much more than we have now 
Year in WCA ID of WC2029 winner: 2017 
3x3 prize at WC2029 ($100,000) sponsored by some big company of celebrity


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## ProStar (Oct 27, 2019)

Predictions for January 1st, 2030:

Singles:

3x3: 3.00, Yusheng's record will last a while though
2x2: 0.33
4x4: 10.xx
5x5: 21.xx
6x6: 45.xx
7x7: 1:20.xx
Blind: 12.xx
FMC: 14
OH: 5.xx
Feet: It won't exist (obviously)
Clock: It won't exist
Mega: 16.xx
Pyra: 0.6x
Skewb: 0.75
Sq1: 3.47
4BLD: 38.xx
5BLD: 1:18.xx
MBLD: 110 points

Averages:

3x3: 4.20,
2x2: 0.9x
4x4: 15.xx
5x5: 25.xx
6x6: 49.xx
7x7: 1:30.xx
Blind: 14.5x
FMC: 19
OH: 7.xx
Feet: It won't exist
Clock: It won't exist
Mega: 18.xx
Pyra: 0.99
Skewb: 1.3x
Sq1: 5.xx
4BLD: 45.xx
5BLD: 1:45.xx

New Events: Mirror Cube,
Removed Events: Feet, Clock
Event Format Changes: 2x2 will be Ao12 or more


Don't laugh at me until 2030.


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## BenChristman1 (Oct 27, 2019)

DarkSavage said:


> Predictions for January 1st, 2030:
> 
> Singles:
> 
> ...


Those are actually decent predictions, and you're right about feet and clock being gone. Isn't feet going to be gone in 2020 already?


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## ProStar (Oct 27, 2019)

BenChristman1 said:


> Those are actually decent predictions, and you're right about feet and clock being gone. Isn't feet going to be gone in 2020 already?



Feet is definitely getting removed. I'm seeing a bunch of 2.xx for 3x3, but to me it kinda seems like its reached its potential(mostly). I've given a lot of improvement for BLD and big cubes cause I figure new methods could be developed. I also figure that weird puzzles like skewb and pyra won't be improved much because of the turning being weird. And clock...is clock


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## KingCanyon (Oct 28, 2019)

ThatLucas said:


> *Single:*
> 3x3: 1.2
> 2x2: 0.2
> 4x4: 6.9
> ...


Ha ha! Sub 7 4x4 single. That would be amazing.


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## kadabrium (Oct 29, 2019)

3x3: 4
4x4: 15
5x5: 22
6x6:40
7x7: 1:00
megaminx: 15

Basically everything normalized to 8-10 tps. All we need to make this happen is a 60mm 7x7 that cornercuts a full turn


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## porkynator (Oct 29, 2019)

Here are my predictions:

3x3: 2.81/4.76
2x2: 0.37/0.94
4x4: 14.71/17.66
5x5: 27.59/33.21
6x6: 52.38/1:00.07
7x7: 1:13.12/1:21.63
Blind: 11.38/14.67
FMC: 16/20.67
OH: 5.12/7.44
Feet: removed
Clock: 2.41/3.12
Mega: 21.81/25.78
Pyra: 0.67/1.34
Skewb: 0.81/1.54
Sq1: 3.47/5.12
4BLD: 46.81/58.36
5BLD: 1:46/2:03
MBLD: 71/72

New Events: none
Removed Events: feet
Event Format Changes: 3BLD (5 solves)
Competitors in the WCA: 680k
Year in WCA ID of WC2029 winner: 2023
3x3 prize at WC2029: 7500€

Comments:
I feel like some of my predictions are very safe, but I believe we are getting close to plateau on some events. For "simple" puzzles (3x3, pyraminx, skewb and megaminx) I would be surprised to see an advancement in hardware in the next 10 years that is even remotely comparable to what we had in the last 10. Bigger cubes have a larger margin of improvent, and my predictions are lower accordingly.


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## ProStar (Oct 29, 2019)

porkynator said:


> FMC: 16/20.67



I like how your saying no one will break your FMC Single WR


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## porkynator (Oct 29, 2019)

DarkSavage said:


> I like how your saying no one will break your FMC Single WR


If you asked me before June I would have predicted the WR to be still 17 in 10 years


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## jronge94 (Oct 29, 2019)

2x2: 0.35/0.88
3x3: 2.77/4.25
4x4: 13.50/16.72
5x5: 29.55/32.50
6x6: 53.23/55.65
7x7: 1:19.65/1:24.89
FMC: 15/19.33
OH: 5.06/6.23
Feet: removed
Clock: 2.5/3.2
Mega: 18.67/22.54
Sq-1: 3.99/5.34
Skewb: 0.89/1.62
Pyra: 0.65/1.22
3bld: 10.78/14.79
4bld: 47.76/55.87
5bld: 1:55.87/2:12.89
Multi: 85 points


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## Koen van Aller (Oct 29, 2019)

2×2: 0.39/0.86
3×3: 2.67/4.10
4×4: 12.98/15.46
5×5: 27.12/29.65
6×6: 49.87/54.87
7×7: 1:18.78/1:20.23
FMC: 13/17.98
Feet: removed
Clock: removed
Megaminx: 16.45/19.38
Square-1: 2.99/4.38
Skewb: 0.67/1.34
Pyraminx: 0.45/1.24
3bld: 9.78/12.38
4bld: 38.56/41.06
5bld: 1:34.89/1:41.67
Mbld: 110/120

Some seems pretty crazy but when you look to the improvement of the last 10 years it is pretty reasonable too.


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## ProStar (Oct 29, 2019)

Koen van Aller said:


> FMC: 13/17.98



@porkynator being experienced in FMC, do you think the WR will _ever _get down that low? (I'm basically asking if that's possible, as I don't know a bunch about FMC)


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## Koen van Aller (Oct 29, 2019)

DarkSavage said:


> @porkynator being experienced in FMC, do you think the WR will _ever _get down that low? (I'm basically asking if that's possible, as I don't know a bunch about FMC)


Maybe it is a bit too low. I am not experienced in FMC either.


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## Matt11111 (Oct 29, 2019)

Imma just see myself out


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## DGCubes (Oct 29, 2019)

3x3: 2.04/3.63
2x2: 0.27/0.84
4x4: 12.80/14.59
5x5: 23.31/25.14
6x6: 49.50/51.09
7x7: 1:16.87/1:20.99
Blind: 9.80/11.13
FMC: 14/17.33
OH: 4.22/5.09
Feet: 10.18/14.77 
Clock: 1.98/2.74
Mega: 18.78/21.95
Pyra: 0.69/1.13
Skewb: 0.76/1.19
Sq1: 2.68/3.65
4BLD: 41.22/45.01
5BLD: 1:32.10/1:39.32
MBLD: 86/90 in 60:00

I do think the WCA will undergo some vast changes event-wise but that's honestly beyond anything I could guess, so I'm just including the current events and nothing more or less. I'm honestly so excited to see these times reached (and surpassed??); a 23 second 5x5 solve just sounds amazing to watch, hopefully I can see that someday. 

But yeah, as of now most of these seem impossible.


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## Mike Hughey (Oct 30, 2019)

I'm not porkynator, and I suspect he would know better, but if I didn't mess up my calculations (using the numbers at http://www.cube20.org/), it looks like a 13-move solution happens about one in every 80,000 scrambles or so. (I know this is a very rough estimate; it could be fairly far off.) Considering there had been only about 2500 FMC scrambles in the WCA database as of the end of last year or so, it seems like it would take some pretty good luck to get a 13-move possible solution by 2030, but it certainly isn't impossible. Of course, then there's the question of whether or not someone could actually find it when it came along.


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## 2018AMSB02 (Oct 30, 2019)

Singles:

3x3: 2.25
2x2: 0.12
4x4: 12.09
5x5: 23.19
6x6: 44.95
7x7: 1:09.12
Blind: 9.72
FMC: 14
OH: 4.59
If Feet Exists: 11.01
If Clock Exists: 1.34
Mega: 19.20
Pyra: 0.41
Skewb: 0.41
Sq1: 3.44
MBLD: 80/85

New Events: Redi Cube, Kilominx, Master Pyraminx
Removed Events: Clock, Feet

I guess these seem pretty extreme, but I don't want to make the same mistake all of the 2020 guessers did (I probably will anyway!)


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## ProStar (Oct 30, 2019)

PingPongCuber said:


> 2x2: 0.12



According to WCA regulation 4b3c, "2x2x2 Cube: The (random) state must require at least 4 moves to solve."

Even if someone did get a 4 move solution scramble, _and _was able to realize the fastest solution, it would be humanly impossible to do all 4 moves in 0.12 seconds. That would be about _*40 TPS*_, so unless robots are allowed to compete, that isn't gonna happen.

Edit: Also, Skewb and Pyraminx must be 7 and 6 moves to solve, respectively. With their weird turning, I don't think 12-15 TPS is gonna happen on those for 0.41 solves.

Edit 2: I don't mean disrespect to you, just pointing out that some times are a little unrealistic.


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## ProStar (Oct 30, 2019)

Mike Hughey said:


> I'm not porkynator, and I suspect he would know better, but if I didn't mess up my calculations (using the numbers at http://www.cube20.org/), it looks like a 13-move solution happens about one in every 80,000 scrambles or so. (I know this is a very rough estimate; it could be fairly far off.) Considering there had been only about 2500 FMC scrambles in the WCA database as of the end of last year or so, it seems like it would take some pretty good luck to get a 13-move possible solution by 2030, but it certainly isn't impossible. Of course, then there's the question of whether or not someone could actually find it when it came along.



Based on those numbers, I'd say your probably right. Also, I don't mean disrespect to @Koen van Aller , I'm just pointing out that the number may be a little low


----------



## Koen van Aller (Oct 30, 2019)

Yeah thats true, but I think 15 is actually really reasonable.


----------



## cubesrawesome (Oct 30, 2019)

Predictions for January 1st, 2030:
3x3: 3.44
2x2: .45
4x4: 15.77
5x5: 29.72
6x6: 1:09.32
7x7: 1:35.43
Blind: 11.34
FMC: 15
OH: 5.89
Feet: Not an event
Clock: 2.32
Mega: 26.11
Pyra: .73
Skewb: .89
Sq1: 3.76
4BLD: 46.33
5BLD: 1:59.44
MBLD: 72

New Events: None
Removed Events: feet
Event Format Changes: none
Competitors in the WCA: 300,000
Year in WCA ID of WC2029 winner: 2021
3x3 prize at WC2029 (2019 value): 20,000


----------



## porkynator (Oct 30, 2019)

Mike Hughey said:


> I'm not porkynator, and I suspect he would know better, but if I didn't mess up my calculations (using the numbers at http://www.cube20.org/), it looks like a 13-move solution happens about one in every 80,000 scrambles or so. (I know this is a very rough estimate; it could be fairly far off.) Considering there had been only about 2500 FMC scrambles in the WCA database as of the end of last year or so, it seems like it would take some pretty good luck to get a 13-move possible solution by 2030, but it certainly isn't impossible. Of course, then there's the question of whether or not someone could actually find it when it came along.



Your estimate seems correct, it's very hard that we'll get a 13HTM scramble in the next 10 years. We'll definitely get some 15 scrambles and maybe (probably?) a 14.

Then the question is: how hard is it to find the optimal solution?
Short answer: very hard.
Slightly longer answer: very hard, but we are improving.
Long answer: 
I don't remember how many of the 14 official sub-20 solves are optimal; I am sure Mark's 17, my 18 and Robert's 19 are not. It is safe to assume that none of the 20 is optimal, which leaves us with at most 11 optimal solutions found so far; but let me use 10 as an upper bound to make the numbers nicer. With around 2500 scrambles so far, this gives us around 0.4% "optimality rate". This is *not* the chance of finding the optimal solution _per person,_ but overall: it means that, so far, on any given scramble there has been 0.4% chance that _someone_ finds an optimal solution (past tense + probability language is hard, let me be sloppy with grammar).
But we are getting better. The WR mean of a little more than 6 months ago (24.00) is not even in top10 now. I think more people are getting into FMC, and more and more are trying to reach very high levels. I don't know if this means that our miserable 0.4% will go up, but I really hope so  However, even if we become something like 25 times better at finding optimal solutions, this only gives us as little as 10% chance 
BUT maybe not all hope is lost. It seems that scrambles that are easy for a computer (i.e. short optimal solution) are also easy for humans. This could mean that our chances of finding an optimal 14 or 13 are much higher than those of finding the optimal solution for the average scramble. If a 13HTM scramble does appear I wouldn't be surprised to see someone actually finding a 13HTM solution for it.

I will stand by my prediction, but a 15 single in the next 10 years is not unreasonable at all. I would be surprised by a 14, but it's still possible. I think a 13 is almost impossible, just because the probability of actually getting such a good scramble are too low.


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## 2018AMSB02 (Oct 30, 2019)

DarkSavage said:


> According to WCA regulation 4b3c, "2x2x2 Cube: The (random) state must require at least 4 moves to solve."
> 
> Even if someone did get a 4 move solution scramble, _and _was able to realize the fastest solution, it would be humanly impossible to do all 4 moves in 0.12 seconds. That would be about _*40 TPS*_, so unless robots are allowed to compete, that isn't gonna happen.
> 
> ...



Yeah, I guess that including the timer start and stop that is pretty unrealistic, thanks for pointing that out though!


----------



## TipsterTrickster (Nov 4, 2019)

Alright lets try this

3x3: 2.54/4.67
2x2: 0.31/0.79
4x4: 14.43/17.34
5x5: 28.89/32.45
6x6: 58.98/1:05.46
7x7: 1:25.25/1:30.53
Blind: 9.99/12.34
FMC: 15/18.00
OH: 4.99/7.00
Feet: 16.96/20.58 but if it remains an event 12.78/15.66
Clock: 2.00/3.15 hopefully by me (;
Mega: 23.55/27.66
Pyra: 0.69/1.15 .69 pllzzzzzz
Skewb: 0.74/1.26
Sq1: 2.88/4.33
4BLD: 45.33/50.22
5BLD: 2:05.42/2:15.23
MBLD: 70/70 in 60:00


some other event is probably going to get added, and maybe even tiers lol.


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## Hazel (Nov 4, 2019)

3x3: 2.09/4.25
2x2: 0.19/0.77
FMC: 15/18.00
OH: 4.50/6.8
MBLD: >=75 points

At least one new WCA event, hopefully more.


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## asacuber (Nov 4, 2019)

a 420x420x420 will be created some way or the other


Spoiler



so that we can do real man 2-7 relays, duh





Matt11111 said:


> Imma just see myself outView attachment 10956


woah the off topic god is back


----------



## Competition Cuber (Nov 4, 2019)

2030 is a little far away.... how about we focus on 2025 first?








World Record Predictions for Year 2025


What do you think that the WCA world records will be in the year 2025? This is basically the same thing as the 2020 thread, just 5 years ahead.




www.speedsolving.com


----------



## ProStar (Nov 4, 2019)

Competition Cuber said:


> 2030 is a little far away.... how about we focus on 2025 first?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The whole point is that we guess and 10 years later we laugh at how off we were


----------



## Loser (Nov 5, 2019)

Competition Cuber said:


> 2030 is a little far away.... how about we focus on 2025 first?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I was trying to replicate the 2020 thread as much as possible, I'd been tracking the date to post it on for like 1.5 years. Missed it by a day .


----------



## Underwatercuber (Nov 5, 2019)

3x3: 2.60/4.20
2x2: 0.33/0.95
4x4: 13.6/17.00
5x5: 27.00/33.00
6x6:1:00.00/1:05.00
7x7: 1:15.00/1:25:00
Blind: 9.5/13.7
FMC: 16/19.67
OH: 5.12/7.44 
Feet: removed 2020
Clock: removed in 2022, there will be a 2.8 single and 3.5 average when removed
Mega: 20.00/25.00
Pyra: 0.6/1.3
Skewb: 0.6/1.4
Sq1: 2.5/4.5
4BLD: 40/48
5BLD: 1:30/1:36
MBLD: 75 points, 80-85 cubes being attempted 


misc predictions
New Events: none
Removed Events: feet, clock 
Event Format Changes: 3-5bld will all have the new formats, ao5 or median of 3.
wca/reg changes: organizers will be able to profit from comps, cubing will explode in numbers when it is allowed. Times will drop massively the years after prize money becomes more and more common. All solves will be recorded and checked by a team. Teams within the wca will be able to make money. regs will be extremely detailed and Delegates/wrc will rarely have to make calls about specific situations.

also no one will have a mass produced clock. cubicle have made an ok one, speedcubeshop will follow suit in a few months but they stop producing them once Clock is removed.


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## ImmolatedMarmoset (Nov 5, 2019)

Underwatercuber said:


> 3x3: 2.60/4.20
> 2x2: 0.33/0.95
> 4x4: 13.6/17.00
> 5x5: 27.00/33.00
> ...


Almost everything in the latter part of your predictions represent things I do not want to happen.


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## ImmolatedMarmoset (Nov 6, 2019)

Underwatercuber said:


> Why?


I don’t think it’s a matter of why, it’s more just that I don’t want cubing to be monetized, I want the angstrom clock to be good, I want clock and feet to stay, I don’t want organizers to be able to profit off events (except maybe James, he could use it)


----------



## ImmolatedMarmoset (Nov 6, 2019)

Underwatercuber said:


> Why would you not want cubing to be monetized? Why should organizers not be able to profit?


I personally think it undermines the idea that WCA is a 501(c)3


----------



## ImmolatedMarmoset (Nov 6, 2019)

Underwatercuber said:


> Ofc it does lol. I’m not predicting that the wca is going to participate in illegal activity lol. I’m predicting that when it gets bit enough they are going to change their status to allow people to make money.


why? I also think it undermines the community aspect of it. Just seems that way to me. (although as i said, James Quinn...)


----------



## ImmolatedMarmoset (Nov 6, 2019)

Underwatercuber said:


> Monetary incentives could be helpful imo. I would imagine more competitions would be held if organizers could make money for example. If wca teams were paid I would expect much more time and thought to be put into their work.
> 
> how does that undermine the community? As long as the money part is regulated to some degree (ex you can only make $1 per competitor) then I don’t really see any issues with it


all fair. In all honesty, i have changed my mind a bit and I somewhat like your idea. Here are my critiques:
- do we really want competitions to be held that much more often? I personally live in the new england area, and I think our comp level is pretty good. I know that other regions are not as good with this.
- If there are two organizers, how do they split up the $1 dollar? Would different organizers be able to make $1 each? 
-Probably would be a bit harder to get comp venues if the organization/organizer is making money on this
-We should probably either make a separate thread for this or bring it to DMs.


----------



## ProStar (Nov 6, 2019)

ImmolatedMarmoset said:


> I don’t think it’s a matter of why, it’s more just that I don’t want cubing to be monetized, I want the angstrom clock to be good, I want clock and feet to stay, I don’t want organizers to be able to profit off events (except maybe James, he could use it)





Underwatercuber said:


> Why would you not want cubing to be monetized? Why should organizers not be able to profit?





ImmolatedMarmoset said:


> I personally think it undermines the idea that WCA is a 501(c)3





Underwatercuber said:


> Ofc it does lol. I’m not predicting that the wca is going to participate in illegal activity lol. I’m predicting that when it gets bit enough they are going to change their status to allow people to make money.





ImmolatedMarmoset said:


> why? I also think it undermines the community aspect of it. Just seems that way to me. (although as i said, James Quinn...)





Underwatercuber said:


> Monetary incentives could be helpful imo. I would imagine more competitions would be held if organizers could make money for example. If wca teams were paid I would expect much more time and thought to be put into their work.
> 
> how does that undermine the community? As long as the money part is regulated to some degree (ex you can only make $1 per competitor) then I don’t really see any issues with it





ImmolatedMarmoset said:


> all fair. In all honesty, i have changed my mind a bit and I somewhat like your idea. Here are my critiques:
> - do we really want competitions to be held that much more often? I personally live in the new england area, and I think our comp level is pretty good. I know that other regions are not as good with this.
> - If there are two organizers, how do they split up the $1 dollar? Would different organizers be able to make $1 each?
> -Probably would be a bit harder to get comp venues if the organization/organizer is making money on this
> -We should probably either make a separate thread for this or bring it to DMs.



Guys, it doesn't matter. We're just guessing, not making official campaign statements. Please stop spamming people's notifications.


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## fortissim2 (Nov 6, 2019)

I'm seeing 2x2 singles at around 0.3, but doesn't it kinda depend on the scramble and picking up the cube fast enough to be sub-WR (2019)?


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## ProStar (Nov 6, 2019)

fortissim2 said:


> I'm seeing 2x2 singles at around 0.3, but doesn't it kinda depend on the scramble and picking up the cube fast enough to be sub-WR (2019)?



Can you send me a link to one of those? I couldn't find any 2x2 singles that were below .49 and followed WCA regulations. Thanks!

*WCA regulation 4b3c, "2x2x2 Cube: The (random) state must require at least 4 moves to solve."*

That's the main thing on most of the vids I saw that disqualified them.


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## Zagros (Nov 7, 2019)

Me and my "friend" predicting, first one is mine, second is his. He has very little (he can solve a pyraminx in 19 seconds) cubing experience.
2x2: 0.38/0.39 Single, 0.83/0.64 Average
3x3: 2.70/2.43 Single, 4.61/4.90 Average
4x4: 12.22/13.84 Single, 16.22/16.98 Average
5x5: 27.9y/29.12 Single, 32.5y/29.86 Average
6x6: 56.5y/54.28 Single, 59.9y/59.20 Average
7x7: 1:25.xy/1:09.44 Single, 1:30.xy/1:17.16 Average
3BLD: 11.91/11.36 Single, 14.73/16.21 Average
FMC: 15/15 Single, 17/20.33 Average
OH: 4.48/4.62 Single, 7.65/7.13 Average
Feet: 12.85/14.18 Single, 16.59/16.46 Average
Clock: 1.92/2.18 Single, 3.21/3.41 Average
Mega: 23.5y/19.85 Single, 25.3y/24.12 Average
Pyra: 0.69/0.72 Single, 1.36/1.47 Average
Skewb: 0.73/0.62 Single, 1.60/1.66 Average
Sq1: 3.00/3.24 Single, 5.00/5.33 Average
4BLD: 49.xy/44.87 Single, 53.xy/44.87, 54.39, 54.26 = 51.17 Average
5BLD: 1:48.xy/1:36.69 Single, 1:59.xy/2:13.16 Average
MBLD: 86 points/74 out of 76 = 72 points


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## fortissim2 (Nov 7, 2019)

DarkSavage said:


> Can you send me a link to one of those? I couldn't find any 2x2 singles that were below .49 and followed WCA regulations. Thanks!
> 
> *WCA regulation 4b3c, "2x2x2 Cube: The (random) state must require at least 4 moves to solve."*
> 
> That's the main thing on most of the vids I saw that disqualified them.


The WR is 0.49, but people here are predicting around 0.3. That's what I meant.


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## Ordway Persyn (Nov 9, 2019)

Im going to assume the event list remains the same, also this will be my only prediction:

2x2: 0.44/1.07
3x3: 2.90/4.32
4x4: 11.56/15.02
5x5: 23.80/27.01
6x6: 40.22/47.15
7x7: 1:03.70/1:09.44
3BLD: 10.99/13.67
FMC: 15 /19.66
OH: 5.59/7.44
Feet: 12.40/17.90 (unlikely to be an event though)
Clock: 2.33/3.70
Megaminx: 17.92/21.50
Pyraminx: 0.79/1.44
Skewb: 0.82/1.51
Sq-1: 2.99/5.11
4BLD: 41.17/47.12
5BLD: 1:25.23/1:32.55
MBLD: 70/73 in 59:36

Some extra predictions
There will be more competition at the top of each event 
People will likely learn 1lll
I will probably still be cubing

I actually think my predictions might be a little conservative.


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## ProStar (Nov 9, 2019)

Ordway Persyn said:


> Im going to assume the event list remains the same, also this will be my only prediction:
> 
> 2x2: 0.44/1.07
> 3x3: 2.90/4.32
> ...



These actually aren't unrealistic. I personally think it's definitely possible that a couple people will learn 1LLL, but I don't think it will become a common thing, because it has like 1,000+ algs. And over 100 of those are already known by anyone who does 2LLL.


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## ProStar (Dec 25, 2019)

Bump


----------



## Tony Fisher (Dec 26, 2019)

GAN 356 X said:


> I wonder if cubing will still be a thing in say, 50 years?


If the climate change cult continues I suspect all plastic will be banned and cubes will be hand chiselled from stone in the dark. 

*My predictions for 2030*
Rubik's Cube single - 1.87. This is my prediction though I think it will be around 2.87. That does not allow for my typical "wow, it went much lower than I thought" reaction so I have removed a second in anticipation that I am massively wrong. 
Highest order mass produced cube - 33x33x33
Highest order cube - 44x44x44
Largest Rubik's Cube - 3.08m x 3.08m x 3.08m (not by me though).

At some point I think everything will recede somewhat just as we saw in the 90s. I doubt that will happen before 2030 but it might depending on new technology. Meaning if most cubers find a better hobby they'll gradually stop cubing. I can easily imagine some new app thing taking over.


----------



## Apolo (Dec 26, 2019)

I hope we will not use CFOP anymore


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## Underwatercuber (Dec 26, 2019)

Apolo said:


> I hope we will not use CFOP anymore


Why would you want people to be slower?


----------



## ProStar (Dec 26, 2019)

Underwatercuber said:


> Why would you want people to be slower?



Just because a method is less developed and less used doesn't mean it isn't fast.


----------



## ElephantCuber (Dec 27, 2019)

clock will not be removed, and if it is, I will cry and quit cubing


----------



## Filipe Teixeira (Dec 27, 2019)

Underwatercuber said:


> Why would you want people to be slower?



Please take this survey








Are you dumb?


poll




www.speedsolving.com


----------



## GenTheThief (Dec 27, 2019)

that poll is hilarious


----------



## Hazel (Dec 27, 2019)

Filipe Teixeira said:


> Please take this survey
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I voted for "Roux is better than CFOP" before I saw the "no" option xD


----------



## WoowyBaby (Dec 27, 2019)

Lmao that poll is great LOL XD

I hope people don't take it too seriously. And also I hope people don't make another Roux vs CFOP thread lmao.
Just use whatever method you like and be happy.


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## Etotheipi (Dec 27, 2019)

All current events will have been removed, and replaced with 7x7 MBLD with feet, with an Ao100 format. The world record single will be 98 points, and the average will be 2.1 points.


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## WoowyBaby (Dec 27, 2019)

Etotheipi said:


> All current events will have been removed, and replaced with 7x7 MBLD with feet, with an Ao100 format. The world record single will be 98 points, and the average will be 2.1 points.


Seems legit, I approve.


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## BradyLawrence (Dec 31, 2019)

Predictions for January 1st, 2030:
3x3: 2.x single, 4.6 ao5
2x2: 0.49 single, 0.9 ao5
4x4: 14.3 single, 16 ao5
5x5: 29 single, 32 ao5
6x6: 59 single, 1;05 ao5
7x7: 1:28 single, 1:33 ao5
Blind: 13 single, 15 mo3
FMC: 14 single, 17 mo3
OH: 5.2 single, 6.9 ao5
Mega: 24 single, 27 ao5
Pyra: 0.8 single, 1.3 ao5
Skewb: 0.93 single, 1.5 ao5
Sq1: 3.9 single, 4.9 ao5
4BLD: sub 1
5BLD: sub 2
MBLD: maybe 70 points?

New Events: kilominx, some sort of cuboid
Removed Events: feet, maybe clock
Event Format Changes: maybe a bracket style as proposed by Keaton Ellis in this stream:




Competitors in the WCA: 250,000
Year in WCA ID of WC2029 winner: 2019
3x3 prize at WC2029 (2019 value): 1M USD


----------



## BradyLawrence (Dec 31, 2019)

Daxton Brumfield said:


> Event Format Changes: smart cubes are allowed


that seems kinda cool


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## TomTheCuber101 (Dec 31, 2019)

3x3: 2.23 single, 4.33 ao5
2x2: 0.31 single, 0.78 ao5
4x4: 12.56 single, 15.23 ao5
5x5: 24.98 single, 30.50 ao5
6x6: 58.98 single, 1:01.99 ao5
7x7: 1:15 single, 1:20.03 ao5
Blind: 8.97 single, 10.62 ao5
FMC: 15 single, 18 mo3
OH: 5.00 single, 6.30 ao5
Feet: -
Clock: -
Mega: 19.99 single, 30.10 ao5
Pyra: 0.69 single, 1.20 ao5
Skewb: 0.69 single, 1.66 ao5
Sq1: 2.98 single, 4.56 ao5
4BLD: 38.13 single, 40.23 mo3
5BLD: 1:03.45 single, 1:24.78 mo3
MBLD: 78/80

New Events: Master Pyraminx, Master Kibiminx and 8x8
Removed Events: Clock
Event Format Changes: Blind, 6x6 and 7x7 are ao5
Competitors in the WCA: 1,002,567
Year in WCA ID of WC2029 winner: 2019
3x3 prize at WC2029 (2019 value): £30,000


----------



## carcass (Feb 28, 2021)

Just saw this thread, had to say something, maybe revive it a little
At least one third of cubers will use a non CFOP method on 3x3
3x3: 2.05, 4.05
2x2: 0.30, 0.78
4x4: 10.95, 15.65
5x5: 22.35, 29.50
6x6: 49.95, 55.35
7x7: 59.95, 1:09.95
3BLD: 10, 14
FMC:16(WCA regs don't let it go lower), 19.66
OH: 4.5, 7.25
Clock(will stay an event because of better hardware): 2.55, 4.25
Megaminx: 20, 28.5
Pyraminx: 0.55, 1.95
Skewb: 0.65, 1.25
Square-1: 3.45, 5.55
4BLD: 40, 1:00
5BLD: 1:40, 2)
MBLD: 90/90
Events added: FTO, maybe Curvy copter, maybe kibiminx
Events removed: none

somebody in the year 2030 quote me and see if I was accurate


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## DNF_Cuber (Feb 28, 2021)

I guess I will too.
3x3: 2.99/4.23
2x2: .46/.91
4x4-7x7: fast/i don't care
3BLD: 12.80/ 15.90
4BLD: 40.00/ 51.00 (I think we will improve a lot.
5BLD: 1:40.79/ 1:52.42
Clock: 2.00/2.96


carcass said:


> 4.25


That is already beaten.
Skewb: No longer an event
Mega: 20/28
Sq1: 3.5/4.8


----------



## Christopher Fandrich (Feb 28, 2021)

3x3: 2.47/4.59
2x2: 0.32/0.73
4x4: 10.00/14.57
5x5: 19.79/24.62
3bld: 8.20/11.43
Sq1: 1.29/3.80
Mega: 18.72/25.64
Pyra: 0.69/1.00
OH: 3.44/6.79


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## 2018AMSB02 (Mar 1, 2021)

DNF_Cuber said:


> I guess I will too.
> 3x3: 2.99/4.23
> 2x2: .46/.91
> 4x4-7x7: fast/i don't care
> ...



Their pyraminx average prediction is also beaten already lol


----------



## Cubable (Mar 1, 2021)

3x3: 3.23
2x2: .37
4x4: 15
5x5:29
6x6: 58
7x7: 1:32
Blind: 11
FMC: 12
OH: sub 6
Feet: Lel
Clock: sub 2
Mega: 24
Pyra: .78
Skewb: .86
Sq1: sub 4
4BLD: sub 1
5BLD: sub 3
MBLD: 67

New Events: FTO
Removed Events: none
Event Format Changes: nah
Competitors in the WCA: 190k
Year in WCA ID of WC2029 winner:
3x3 prize at WC2029 (2019 value):


----------



## DNF_Cuber (Mar 1, 2021)

PingPongCuber said:


> Their pyraminx average prediction is also beaten already lol


I suspected that, but I don't keep up with pyra. I just know it is 1. something by tymon


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## Cubable (Mar 1, 2021)

ThatLucas said:


> *Single:*
> 3x3: 1.2
> 2x2: 0.2
> 4x4: 6.9
> ...


Blind FM OH and clock are very possible...


----------



## ProStar (Mar 1, 2021)

Cubable said:


> Blind FM OH and clock are very possible...



Almost all of them are _physically_ impossible / extremely improbable, so unless robotic arms are allowed they won't get that low


----------



## PetrusQuber (Mar 1, 2021)

Cubable said:


> Blind FM OH and clock are very possible...


Lol I was making a joke in case you didn’t realise that in my original post (which was a year back)


----------



## H0BB3 (Mar 1, 2021)

i would love to see blind one foot be an event


----------



## Cubable (Mar 1, 2021)

ProStar said:


> Almost all of them are _physically_ impossible / extremely improbable, so unless robotic arms are allowed they won't get that low


Stanley Chapel has a 7.3 blind solve. Clock all it needs is some luck and that is pretty probable in the next 10 years. FM is the same. THere is already and OH solve at home faster than that, and max has Mo3 faster.


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## qwr (Mar 1, 2021)

at the rate chinese cubers and young prodigies are improving, sub-5 avg is basically guaranteed. I think maybe sub-4 is maybe possible if these chinese cubers could combine tymon efficiency with their insane 12+ tps. also a sub-3 single will happen sooner or later when a top level cuber gets the luckiest scramble ever.


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## DNF_Cuber (Mar 1, 2021)

Cubable said:


> Stanley Chapel has a 7.3 blind solve. Clock all it needs is some luck and that is pretty probable in the next 10 years. FM is the same. THere is already and OH solve at home faster than that, and max has Mo3 faster.


Ummm... I'm pretty sure WCA regs make the chances of a 10 move optimal FMC scramble astronomical.


----------



## Cubable (Mar 1, 2021)

DNF_Cuber said:


> Ummm... I'm pretty sure WCA regs make the chances of a 10 move optimal FMC scramble astronomical.


Idk. I'm no expert lol.


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## Deleted member 55877 (Mar 1, 2021)

predictions for some events
2x2: sub 0.35 single, sub 0.8 average
3x3: sub 2.5 single, sub 4.5 average
3x3 OH: sub 5 single, sub 8 average
4x4: sub 13 single, sub 16 average
megaminx: sub 16 single, sub 19 average
squan: sub 3.5 single, sub 5 average


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## carcass (Mar 1, 2021)

PetrusQuber said:


> Lol I was making a joke in case you didn’t realise that in my original post (which was a year back)


It's good there is an absurd post so that in ten years they aren't faster than ALL our posts. Look at the the 2020 predictions, almost all predictions are too low.


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## David ep (Mar 1, 2021)

2030 is too hard to predict so imma do 2023
3x3:3.47/5.09 by ruilang xu
2x2:0.41/1/14 by will callan
4x4 16.94/19.87 by max park
5x5-7x7 max park
blind idk


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## CuberL (May 5, 2021)

3x3: 2.75/4.56
2x2: 0.38/ 0.91
4x4: 13.42/16.53
5x5: 24.76/28.23
6x6: 58.78/1:03.65
7x7: 1:29.89/1:35.77
Blind: 9.34/13.23
FMC: 15/19.66
OH: 4.94/7.32
Clock: 1.6/3.11
Mega: 23.27/25.44
Pyra: 0.68/0.95
Skewb: 0.85/1.65
Sq1: 1.96/3.65
4BLD: 1:02.56/1:10.73
5BLD: 1:56.86/ 2:02.50
MBLD: 67 points

New Events: N/a
Removed Events: Clock, Feet was already removed
Event Format Changes: 3 BLD Ao5
Competitors in the WCA: 900,000
Year in WCA ID of WC2029 winner: 2023
3x3 prize at WC2029 (2019 value): $25000 USD
Idk dude


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## CuberL (May 5, 2021)

qwr said:


> at the rate chinese cubers and young prodigies are improving, sub-5 avg is basically guaranteed. I think maybe sub-4 is maybe possible if these chinese cubers could combine tymon efficiency with their insane 12+ tps. also a sub-3 single will happen sooner or later when a top level cuber gets the luckiest scramble ever.


I doubt it because the efficiency takes more thinking and more planning, which they do not do too much of. I don't think Yiheng Wang, Ruihang Xu, or Yezhen Han don't even do COLL. If they somehow figure out a way to combine those then sub-4.5 is definitely possible but I don't think they will get under that with just their tps. 60 moves/12tps = 5 seconds, but 48/12tps = 4 seconds, and I don't think they get sub-50 move solutions without a skip. On Ruihang's 2.68 he didn't stop to recognize the WV, which would have saved him 3 moves and most likely a sub-2.6. It is little things like that which will hold them back. Not saying they aren't rapid, but they probably won't be too efficient in the near future in my opinion.


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## qwr (May 5, 2021)

LukasDikic said:


> I doubt it because the efficiency takes more thinking and more planning, which they do not do too much of. I don't think Yiheng Wang, Ruihang Xu, or Yezhen Han don't even do COLL. If they somehow figure out a way to combine those then sub-4.5 is definitely possible but I don't think they will get under that with just their tps. 60 moves/12tps = 5 seconds, but 48/12tps = 4 seconds, and I don't think they get sub-50 move solutions without a skip. On Ruihang's 2.68 he didn't stop to recognize the WV, which would have saved him 3 moves and most likely a sub-2.6. It is little things like that which will hold them back. Not saying they aren't rapid, but they probably won't be too efficient in the near future in my opinion.


Yezhen Han did keyhole and several xcrosses on his AsR avg https://speedcubedb.com/r/5152. He is more efficient than Ruihang.


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## CuberL (May 5, 2021)

qwr said:


> Yezhen Han did keyhole and several xcrosses on his AsR avg https://speedcubedb.com/r/5152. He is more efficient than Ruihang.


I shouldn't have included his name there, I don't know much about his solving style, but I think that explains why he is faster.


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## Cuberstache (May 6, 2021)

carcass said:


> FMC:16(WCA regs don't let it go lower)


????
There have been sub-16 move optimal scrambles at official FMC competitions before


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## BenChristman1 (Sep 27, 2021)

I think I’m going to update my predictions, since some of these are pretty bad. (This was also my first post on the forums, so that’s awesome!)



BenChristman1 said:


> Predictions for January 1st, 2030:
> 3x3: 2.85
> 2x2: 0.4
> 4x4: 13
> ...


3x3: 2.5 / 4.5
2x2: 0.40 / 0.90
4x4: 13.xx / 18.xx
5x5: 28.xx / 32.xx
6x6: 59.xx / 1:05.xx
7x7: 1:25.xx / 1:35.xx
3BLD: 12.xx / 16.xx
FMC: 15 / 20.00
OH: 4.5 / 7.5
RIP feet
Clock: 2.3 / 3.3
Megaminx: 22.xx / 25.xx
Pyraminx: 0.80 / 1.3
Skewb: 0.85 / 1.8
Square-1: 3.9 / 5.8
4BLD: 55.xx / 59.xx
5BLD: 2:05.xx / 2:15.xx
MBLD: 70/72
FTO: 13.xx / 18.xx (I don’t know anything about FTO, so this might be a stupid guess)

New events: FTO
Removed events: None (besides feet)
Event format changes: Article Y will still be in the Regulations
Year in WCA ID of WC2029 winner: 2024
3x3 prize at WC2029 in USD: $10,000


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## stwert (Sep 27, 2021)

My prediction is there will be no comps in 2030 due to a global pandemic.


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## cuberswoop (Sep 27, 2021)

stwert said:


> My prediction is there will be no comps in 2030 due to a global pandemic.


The Omega Variant lol


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## Cubing Forever (Sep 27, 2021)

BenChristman1 said:


> OH: 4.5 / 7.5


this is more like a Jan 1 2024 prediction thanks to @UNO_FASY


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## UNO_FASY (Sep 27, 2021)

OH would be like 3.xx/ 5.xx in 2030 tbh


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## LBr (Sep 27, 2021)

prediction for average wrs 2030

2x2 - sub 1
3x3 - sub 4.5
4x4 - sub 18
5x5 - sub 37
6x6 - sub 1:15
7x7 - sub 1:45
oh - sub 8.5
pyra - sub 1.6
skewb - sub 1.7
clock - sub 3
mega - sub 27
3BLD - sub 15
4BLD - sub 1 min
5bld - sub 2:10
MBLD - 70+
sq1 - sub 5.5
FMC - sub 20.67


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## LBr (Sep 27, 2021)

Loser said:


> New Events: rescramble
> Removed Events: clock
> Event Format Changes: lower cutoffs, adaptation in running of bld/fmc
> Competitors in the WCA: ~300,000
> ...


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## Megaminx lover (Sep 28, 2021)

Predictions for January 1st, 2030:
Section A
3x3: 2.3/4.9
2x2: 0.2/0.9
4x4: 14/16
5x5: 28/33
Blind: 12/17
OH: 4.5/5.5
Clock: 2/3
Mega: 23/27
Pyra: 0.4/1.3
Skewb: 0.6/1.5
Sq1: 3.5/5.5
4BLD: 50/55

Section B
6x6: 58/1.10
7x7: 1.30/1.35
5BLD: 2.10/2.20
MBLD: 165/170
FMC: 15/19.67

New Events: (Edit: A: Kilominx, Redi Cube, Master Pyraminx, Mirror blocks, FTO B: Curvy copter, 6BLD, 7BLD)
Removed Events: None
Event Format Changes: MBLD extended to 3 hours, Events split to section A (Main one) and B(Only used for worlds and some comps.
Competitors in the WCA: 200000
Year in WCA ID of WC2029 winner: 2023
3x3 prize at WC2029 (2019 value6): ???


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## Cubing Forever (Sep 28, 2021)

Speed:
2x2: 0.3/0.5
3x3: low 2/4.1
4x4: 9/14
5x5: 23/30
6x6: 48/55
7x7: 1:10/1:25
OH: 3.5/5.8
Mega: 20/24
Pyra: 0.4/0.8
Skewb: same as pyra
Squan: 2.5/4.8
Clock: 1.7/2.5
Feet: 9/12
FTO: 8/12(if QiYi produces one)

BLD:
3x3: 7/12
4x4: 39/48
5x5: 1:10/1:18-1:22
Multi: 75/75 1:00.00(by Rowe/Graham in 2023, unbroken till 2030)

Other:
FMC: 12/18

WCA worlds 2029 winning average: 4.24
Winner's WCA ID: 2022KAVA01(lol imagine me winning worlds with Mehta)
Cash prize: $10000
New events: FTO, Feet


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## CubeRed (Sep 28, 2021)

I wonder if cubing would be even more popular in the future or is it going to have a small but developed community. (I hope you get what I mean) It would be nice for it to become more popular in some countries.


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## abunickabhi (Sep 28, 2021)

CubeRed said:


> I wonder if cubing would be even more popular in the future or is it going to have a small but developed community. (I hope you get what I mean) It would be nice for it to become more popular in some countries.


Yes cubing still has to reach out to 90ish countries. Most of the northern Africa has had no official or even unofficial cube competition. There is a lot of scope for outreach once the pandemic ends.


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## LukasCubes (Sep 28, 2021)

2x2: Sub-0.48
3x3: Sub-3
4x4: Sub-12
5x5: Sub-30
6x6: Sub-1
7x7: Sub-1:30
3OH: Sub-5
3BLD: Sub-12
MBLD: 69/70
FMC: 14
4BLD: ?
5BLD: Sub-2
Feet: NOOO
Clock: NOOOOOO
Mega: Sub-24
Pyra: Sub-0.7
Skewb: Sub-0.7
Sq1: Sub-4

Removed Events: Feet + Clock
New Events: Kilominx + FTO


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## Dylan Swarts (Oct 1, 2021)

BenChristman1 said:


> MBLD: 70/72


I would not be surprised if this was achieved next year. Quite possible. I'd not go any lower than 85 cubes subhour by 2030, possibly 90. Personal opinion as always.


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## Cubing Forever (Oct 2, 2021)

LukasCubes said:


> Feet: NOOO
> Clock: NOOOOOO


why tho? feet and clock are fun events


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## LukasCubes (Oct 2, 2021)

Cubing Forever said:


> why tho? feet and clock are fun events


feet already got removed and clock looks like its gonna be removed before 2030.


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## Sajwo (Dec 28, 2021)

This was fun a decade ago, when we made predictions for 2020. But the thing is, no matter how experienced you are or how much you think you know about speedcubing, this predictions will never be accurate, as long as you try to justify them is some way or another. Great example is Sebastiano Tronto who thought FMC Single will be 17 in 2030, but he got 16 10 years earlier.

Predictions for December 2030:
3x3: 2.42/4.09 (Done with CFOP)
2x2: 0.29/0.83
4x4: 12.70/16.90
5x5: 28.00/32.50
6x6: 0:55/0:58
7x7: 1:22/1:28
Blind: 9.90/12.80
FMC: 16/19.67
OH: 5.00/7.20 (Done with Roux)
Clock: 1.69/2.50
Mega: 22.50/25.00
Pyra: 0.75/1.25
Skewb: 0.75/1.25
Sq1: 2.20/4.00
4BLD: 45.00/49.00
5BLD: 1:30/1:40
MBLD: 85 points

Max Park will become irrevelant. All WRs lost.
CFOP and reduction will remain to be superior methods for 3x3-7x7.
OH average will get down to low-7 with Roux and low-8 with CFOP.
WCA will continue to use Speedstacks timers.
People will one-look 2x2, skewb, pyraminx, square-1 and clock.
World records will become so ridiculous, that even prodigies will lose their hope for getting one. Focus will be switched to obtaining championship titles.


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## yCArp (Jun 8, 2022)

3x3: 1.68/3.54
2x2: 0.22/0.54
4x4: 9.94/12.56
5x5: 24.37/28.86
6x6: 0:46/0:56
7x7: 1:09/1:14
Blind: 8.34/10.29
FMC: 16/19.67
OH: 3.23/5.67
Clock: 1.55/2.34
Mega: 17.45/18.90
Pyra: 0.55/1.04
Skewb: 0.47/1.02
Sq1: 1.79/3.78
4BLD: 34.64/39.73
5BLD: 59.87/1:04
MBLD: 100 points


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## hyn (Jun 8, 2022)

3x3: 3.47/4.62
2x2: 0.31/0.85
4x4: 12.22/16.48
5x5: 26.37/31.44
6x6: 50.29/58.87
7x7: 1:22/1:30
Blind: 7.84/9.25
FMC: 14/17
OH: 4.71/6.55
Clock: 2.12/2.99
Mega: 21.46/26.35
Pyra: 0.67/1.34
Skewb: 0.85/1.5
Sq1: 3.87/4.54
4BLD: 40.xx/55.xx
5BLD: 1:30/1:50
MBLD: 70 points

New Events: FTO, Mirror
Removed Events: Clock
Year in WCA ID of WC2029 winner: 2015
3x3 prize at WC2029 (2019 value): $50k


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## NigelTheCuber (Jun 8, 2022)

3x3: 3.46 single, 4.10 ao5 (somehow feliks gonna beat single by 0.01)
2x2: 0.29 single, 0.85 ao5
4x4: 9.50 single, 13.50 ao5
5x5: 23.50 single, 26.00 ao5
6x6: 45.00 single, 50.00 mo3
7x7: 1:15 single, 1:30 mo3
Pyra: 0.55 single, 1.00 ao5
Skewb: 0.70 single, 1.10 ao5
Mega: 19.00 single, 21.00 ao5
Squan: 1.90 single, 4.20 ao5 (some dude gon get a cubeshape/obl skip)
3x3 oh: 3.75 single, 5.50 ao5 (by fahmi, since he is *the* fastest oh solver by a massive margin)
3bld: 8.00 single, 10.00 mo3
4bld: 40.00 single, 1:00.00 mo3
5bld: 1:45.00 single, 2:00.00 mo3
Clock: 2.00 single, 3.00 ao5
Mbld: 69/70 42:06.90
FMC: 12/18


Approximations, which is why most end in 0s.


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## Imsoosm (Jun 8, 2022)

NigelTheCuber said:


> by some indonesian rouxer


you should be put in jail for saying that

jkjk


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## NigelTheCuber (Jun 8, 2022)

i was talking about fahmi


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## Timona (Jun 8, 2022)

*3x3*: 3.3x/4.8x
*2x2*: Won't be broken
*4x4*: 13.xx/16.xx
*5x5*: 29.xx/35
*6x6*: 58.xx/1:02.xx
*7x7*: 1:28.xx/1:35.xx
*Blind*: 11/14
*FMC*: I don't think anyone can do better than the current WR
*OH*: 5/7
*Clock*: 1.5/3.0
*Mega*: 22.xx/27.xx
*Pyraminx*: Wont be broken
*Skewb*: Wont be broken
*Square-1*: 4.0/4.9
*4BLD*: 50.xx/59.xx
*5BLD*: 2.00/2:10
*MBLD*: 70 points

*New Events*: They'll finally succumb and add FTO and Mirror Blocks, maybe Kilominx
*Removed Events*: None


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## IsThatA4x4 (Jun 8, 2022)

3x3: 2.xx/4.0x
2x2: 0.4x/0.9x
4x4: 12-13.xx/15.xx
5x5: idk much abt 5x5
...
FMC: 15/18
OH: 5.xx/7.xx
...
MBLD: 100 points
3BLD: 9.xx (it's crazy but it could happen)


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## DynaXT (Jun 8, 2022)

IsThatA4x4 said:


> 3BLD: 9.xx (it's crazy but it could happen)



Tommy did recently get a 9.69 off camera...


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## Imsoosm (Jun 8, 2022)

NigelTheCuber said:


> i was talking about fahmi


I know you were
The reason you should be put in a jail is calling him "some Indonesian rouxer"


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## Filipe Teixeira (Jun 8, 2022)

DynaXT said:


> Tommy did recently get a 9.69 off camera...


wow really! where is the video?


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## DynaXT (Jun 8, 2022)

Filipe Teixeira said:


> wow really! where is the video?


Note how I said “off camera”


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## NigelTheCuber (Jun 8, 2022)

Imsoosm said:


> I know you were
> The reason you should be put in a jail is calling him "some Indonesian rouxer"


fine fine i will change it


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## NigelTheCuber (Jun 8, 2022)

Timona said:


> *3x3*: 3.3x/4.8x
> *2x2*: 0.5/1.4
> *4x4*: 13.xx/16.xx
> *5x5*: 29.xx/35
> ...


erm the 2x2 wrs on your list are higher than the current ones...


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## Timona (Jun 8, 2022)

NigelTheCuber said:


> erm the 2x2 wrs on your list are higher than the current ones...


Bruh, then it cant be broken again.


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## Timona (Jun 8, 2022)

It's highly unlikely that someone gets a sub-1 average in 2x2 because when they see that they're on track for it, they're bound to mess up.


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## Imsoosm (Jun 8, 2022)

Timona said:


> It's highly unlikely that someone gets a sub-1 average in 2x2 because when they see that they're on track for it, they're bound to mess up.


Ah well, it's bound to happen sometime. Zayn already has a 1.02, (and it's a 0.99 mean), and Zayn is consistently sub-WR2.


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## NigelTheCuber (Jun 8, 2022)

zayn will get a sub 1 by the end of the year mark my words.


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## NigelTheCuber (Jun 8, 2022)

Timona said:


> *Removed Events*: None


bet clock will be removed by then


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## Megaminx lover (Oct 5, 2022)

Cubeguy11 said:


> I have one prediction:
> Sub 5 3x3 world record average


8 years too late


Megaminx lover said:


> 4.9





Megaminx lover said:


> 17





Megaminx lover said:


> 5.5


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## lucazdoescubingstuff (Oct 5, 2022)

tymon, max, or feliks gets a sub 3 or sub 4 in 3x3


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## NigelTheCuber (Oct 5, 2022)

lucazdoescubingstuff said:


> tymon, max, or feliks gets a sub 3 or sub 4 in 3x3


i'm going for sub 2


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## NigelTheCuber (Oct 5, 2022)

lucazdoescubingstuff said:


> tymon, max, or feliks


None of those, it's really unlikely those 3 can stay competitive after 10 years


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## lucazdoescubingstuff (Oct 5, 2022)

NigelTheCuber said:


> None of those, it's really unlikely those 3 can stay competitive after 10 years


yeah you're right


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## the_chad (Oct 5, 2022)

By the year 2030 top CFOPers will be able to one-look whole solution during inspection


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## NigelTheCuber (Oct 5, 2022)

the_chad said:


> By the year 2030 top CFOPers will be able to one-look whole solution during inspection


full f2l yes, but the whole solve nah


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## espeed (Oct 9, 2022)

NigelTheCuber said:


> full f2l yes, but the whole solve nah


Speedbld with 1 minute memo time will replace regular 3x3x3 speedsolving (this is not a serious prediction)


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## jwiejoo (Nov 23, 2022)

3x3: 1.92/2.95
2x2: 0.30/0.59
4x4: 12.62/13.33
5x5: 23.11/24.05
6x6: 44.33/46.71
7x7: idk
Blind: 7.81/8.23
FMC: 14/19
OH: 4.23/5.43
Feet: 
Clock: 1.71/2.34
Mega: 20.33/22.85
Pyra: 0.79/1.31
Skewb: 0.71/1.25
Sq1: 1.95/3.03
4BLD: 41.47/47.65
5BLD: 1:44.43/1:51.55
MBLD: 71/73

New Events: idk
Removed Events: none
Event Format Changes: idk
Competitors in the WCA: 330k
Year in WCA ID of WC2029 winner: 5k
3x3 prize at WC2029 (2019 value): idk


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## NigelTheCuber (Nov 24, 2022)

NigelTheCuber said:


> zayn will get a sub 1 by the end of the year mark my words.


No way, not happening anymore


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## cubenerd74 (Nov 24, 2022)

This is single only
Predictions for January 1st, 2030:
3x3: 2.47
2x2: 0.31
4x4: 13.79
5x5: 26.97
6x6: 49.xx
7x7: 1:28.xx
Blind: 12.57
FMC: 14
OH: 5.52
Clock: Removed
Mega: 21.91
Pyra: 0.78
Skewb: 0.69
Sq1: 3.51
4BLD: 51.83
5BLD: 1:59.99
MBLD: 71/75 in 1:00:00

New Events: Square 2 maybe
Removed Events: clock
Event Format Changes:6x6 and 7x7 are Ao5
Competitors in the WCA: 500k
Year in WCA ID of WC2029 winner: 2022(I hope that'll be me)
3x3 prize at WC2029 (2019 value): idk


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## F'prime (Nov 24, 2022)

3x3 WR Average will be 3.67


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## DynaXT (Nov 24, 2022)

NigelTheCuber said:


> bet clock will be removed by then


You are an L


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## NigelTheCuber (Nov 24, 2022)

DynaXT said:


> You are an L


Why are clock fanbois so toxic


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## DuckubingCuber347 (Nov 24, 2022)

DynaXT said:


> You are an L


There's a such thing as being snarky, and then there's what you did. Mind your manners clock kid.


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## DynaXT (Nov 24, 2022)

DuckubingCuber347 said:


> There's a such thing as being snarky, and then there's what you did. Mind your manners clock kid.


What I did was not meant to be taken seriously. I never truly intend to hurt anyone's feelings, so if I did then sorry. But that last sentence seems similar to what you're trying to criticize me for.


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## cuberswoop (Nov 24, 2022)

NigelTheCuber said:


> None of those, it's really unlikely those 3 can stay competitive after 10 years


Tymon could probably stay competitive until 2027ish. I'm not sure about max though. Definitely not Feliks.


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