# WRs! Sebastiano Tronto 22 mean and 16 single at FMC 2019!



## ImmolatedMarmoset (Jun 15, 2019)

Absolutely insane! Congrats! 
I wonder where the future of FMC lies! I know no one expected a sixteen. I am in shock.

Also, GJ to Baiqiang for the AsR mean.


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## mark49152 (Jun 15, 2019)

Great mean but that single is incredible - congrats Sebastiano!


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## Daxton Brumfield (Jun 15, 2019)

how many scrambles are even 16 optimal?


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## Mike Hughey (Jun 15, 2019)

Daxton Brumfield said:


> how many scrambles are even 16 optimal?


https://cube20.org/
If that site's numbers are accurate, there are about 3 18 move scrambles for every 17 move scramble, and 12 17 move scrambles for every 16 move scramble. So 16 or fewer move optimal scrambles should come along about once every 36 scrambles or so - not all that rare. (Note that's a very rough calculation using what are themselves very rough estimates from that website - the actual number seems like it's somewhere between 40 and 60 scrambles, actually).

I suspect we'll see a 15 move solution someday, and I wouldn't be surprised if we actually get a 14.

Still, it either takes really good skill combined with some good luck, or really really good luck, to find an optimal solution. I know in Sebastiano's case, it's the former - an amazing achievement!

Edit: I find it fascinating that there are apparently more than twice as many 8-move-optimal scrambles as there are 20-move-optimal scrambles. I never would have guessed that!


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## Daxton Brumfield (Jun 15, 2019)

Wow! I thought that almost all scrambles were 18 optimal, because every time I get a pb or sometimes just for fun I put a scramble into cube explorer, and I seem to always get 18 optimal. I only think I have even seen a 17 optimal once, but maybe that is just my luck.


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## M O (Jun 15, 2019)

Sebastiano is an absolute beast. If anyone wants to pick up FMC, or improve their existent knowledge, he wrote an in depth tutorial as a 58 pages pdf, I can only recommend reading it


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## porkynator (Jun 15, 2019)

Thanks everyone!
I posted my solves in the FMC thread 
I will try to make a walk-through video like I did for my 24.00 and 24.67 official means, but I will be busy for the next two weeks. Hopefully it will up before worlds.


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## bobthegiraffemonkey (Jun 16, 2019)

I thought FMC single was dead after the 17, well done for proving me wrong!


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## porkynator (Jun 16, 2019)

bobthegiraffemonkey said:


> I thought FMC single was dead after the 17, well done for proving me wrong!


Ahah, I also thought the same until today


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## u Cube (Jun 16, 2019)

Woah crazy! Good job!


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## mark49152 (Jun 16, 2019)

Mike Hughey said:


> https://cube20.org/
> If that site's numbers are accurate


I just noticed the numbers for 16-19 add up to 43.6 *10^18, greater than the 43.25 total positions - so there's clearly some rounding up going on .


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## CornerCutter (Jun 16, 2019)

Way to go Sebastiano! Awesome job! That's cool you were on the podcast just a couple months back!


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## pjk (Jun 17, 2019)

Reposted from here:


> Solutions for my 22.00 WR mean (16, 26, 24) at FMC 2019:
> 
> 1.
> Scramble: R' U' F D2 L2 F R2 U2 R2 B D2 L B2 D' B2 L' R' B D2 B U2 L U2 R' U' F
> ...


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## cuber314159 (Jun 17, 2019)

Apparently there has never been a sub 16 move optimal scramble in any official FMC competition.


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## Mike Hughey (Jun 17, 2019)

cuber314159 said:


> Apparently there has never been a sub 16 move optimal scramble in any official FMC competition.


Are you sure? How did you determine that? Note that recent scrambles have the 3 extra moves at the beginning and end, so it requires processing each scramble to see what its optimal length is. Did you use software to process every scramble in the WCA database?

If the numbers from the website I quoted are somewhat correct, it seems really unlikely for there to have never been one. With 1835 competitions in the past that have held FMC, and many of them having more than one scramble per competition (most recently having at least 3), you'd think the odds would be pretty overwhelming we'd have at least one 15 move scramble. Seems the odds for a 15-move optimal scramble should be less than 1 in 1000.

Edit: This actually seems like it might be a fun project - if you haven't done it already, someone with lots of computing power available should process every FMC scramble in the WCA database and list the number of scrambles with each optimum length. It would be really interesting to know what that's like.


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## Kit Clement (Jun 17, 2019)

cuber314159 said:


> Apparently there has never been a sub 16 move optimal scramble in any official FMC competition.



That is an incredibly false statement. There have been at least nine 15-move optimal scrambles since scrambles were tracked:

Thailand Championship 2015: L2 B2 U2 B2 R2 U2 B' R2 U2 B2 F' L F' L2 F U' F2 L' R2 U' F 
Dutch Open 2015: U2 R2 F' U2 D' L' D2 F' U F' R F' R2 F' L2 F' L2 B2 D2 
Plentzia Open 2016 Scramble 2: R2 D2 F2 R' U R2 D' B U' F2 L F' D B F2 
Brasileiro 2016 Scramble 1: R' U' F R2 U' B2 R2 U B2 D U2 B2 U R U2 R D L B D R' D U' R' U' F 
Joao Camara 2016: R' U' F L' U2 L D2 F2 R2 D2 R2 D' L B2 D' L2 B' U R' D' B' U2 R' U' F 
Sydney Championship 2016 Scramble 1: R' U' F D U2 B2 D F2 R2 U R2 B2 F2 U' B' D2 L F' U' R' B' U' L2 D' R' U' F 
Cobb Cubes 2017: R' U' F R2 U' R2 D B2 D U R2 U' F2 L' U' F' D2 L' D' L2 B R2 B' R' U' F 
Silent Swap Open 2017 R2 Scramble 3: R' U' F R2 D2 F2 L' F2 U2 B2 L' B2 F2 U' B R' B' D2 B' L U' R2 F2 U' R' U' F 
PSKubing 2017: R' U' F D2 F2 L2 F2 U2 R' B2 F2 R' B' R B' F' D U B2 R' F D R' U' F 

Source: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...ck7pxSSvfnxHM3buyKvBQ0DmM_8YvKynlIxnDD0#gid=0 

Likely more than this since this was analyzed by Baiqiang a year ago.


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## Mike Hughey (Jun 17, 2019)

Ah, so someone HAS already done it. although as you say that's old.

Interesting: 59 16-move optimal scrambles, at that time.

Also interesting: considering this was done a year ago, I wonder if there have been any 14-move optimal scrambles yet. If not, we're due.


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## cuber314159 (Jun 18, 2019)

Thanks for clearing that up, that's what the delegate told us at the venue after Sebastiano Tronto found his 16 move solution, but I guess you have shown it's not true.


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## Competition Cuber (Jun 18, 2019)

Congrats to Sebastiano, but it looks like there were also some other pretty good means as well.


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## AlphaCuber is awesome (Jun 19, 2019)

i was at that venue and can confirm people saying there had not been a 15 they may have meant there hadn't been a sub 15


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## jronge94 (Jun 19, 2019)

To be fair 15 is going to happen one day, not sure how fa in the future, but it will.
I also wouldn't be too surprised if a 14 happens before 2030.
Anything less than that I'd be extremely baffled.


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## aerocube (Jun 20, 2019)

ok what is going on with fmc,WRs are dropping so quickly
did someone find a new method or something


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## Mike Hughey (Jun 20, 2019)

aerocube said:


> ok what is going on with fmc,WRs are dropping so quickly
> did someone find a new method or something


Domino Reduction seems to have suddenly gotten a lot more popular, and is responsible for a lot of the great results lately. For that matter, in general, preorienting has become a lot more important.


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## porkynator (Jun 30, 2019)

I made a video where I explain my solutions, enjoy


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