# How many times would you push the button?



## dbax0999 (Aug 23, 2009)

There is a button that will give you $20,000 dollars every time you push it. However, 1% of the time, pushing the button will kill you instantly.

How many times would you push the button?


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## calekewbs (Aug 23, 2009)

5 times. Buuuuuut if it was something along the lines of you just lose all the money plus some with the 1% chance I would do a few less than when the odds are against me. so I would probbably do it 45 times.


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## vvtopkar (Aug 23, 2009)

0.

I wouldn't take any chances....


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## StachuK1992 (Aug 23, 2009)

5 times. Pay for the college years of my life, and continue to work.

Either that, or infinitely until I die, and give the money to charity. 
Probably this. 
The survival of multiple others is more important than my personal survival.


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## cmhardw (Aug 23, 2009)

I would look at the expected value. I rate winning $20,000 dollars as (+20000). I rate dying as (-infinity) or negative infinity.

So, using my utility function or my ratings of the outcomes, there is an expected value of pushing the button at:

[limit a->negative infintiy] 0.99*(20000) + 0.01(a) which approaches negative infinity.

I would not push the button even once.

Chris


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## calekewbs (Aug 23, 2009)

good rule to live by. I like your philosophy!

and come on! live a little chris! lol


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## Logan (Aug 23, 2009)

calekewbs said:


> good rule to live by. I like your philosophy!
> 
> and come on! live a little chris! lol


But if he lives a little, he could die a lot (that didn't make sense but you know what I mean).




hmm. tough question. once maybe. I'm really afraid of death (even though I'm christian) so I might not.


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## ben1996123 (Aug 23, 2009)

I would carry on hitting it... with a hammer, so when I hit it, I get money, or, I break the button so I cant die.

I would give it to people I dont like and tell them to press it 2 hundred times, then as soon as they die, take their money, lol.


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## qqwref (Aug 23, 2009)

I'd wait and do a mathematical calculation first before pressing the button at all 

We want to maximize the expected value of your situation. Assuming your money is worthless once you are dead, and that being dead is just as good as having no money, we want to maximize (money gained) * (probability of being alive), and as it turns out this is greatest when you have pressed the button 99 or 100 times. Thus it is worth it to press the button (up to) 99 times, but after that you won't gain anything on average from pressing it.

We could alternatively assume that your money is still worth the same once you're dead (so your family or whatever will be getting it), but that your life has a given personal value. Then the value affects how many times you should press it. If your life is worth nothing, keep pressing it until you die, but if your life is worth (say) $10 million then you shouldn't even press it once.

Personally? I probably wouldn't press the button at all. My life is worth way too much to me to gamble it on something like this


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## dannyz0r (Aug 23, 2009)

Once and then i'd use the money to pay other people to press it for me after signing a contract.


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## ben1996123 (Aug 23, 2009)

dannyz0r said:


> Once and then i'd use the money to pay other people to press it for me after signing a contract.


How about if you die the first time you push it?


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## Robert-Y (Aug 23, 2009)

Hmm would anyone push the button if there was a 10% chance of getting killed? If so, what about 20% and so on and so on...

(Someone turn this into a good question, I can't seem to find the right words...)


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## calekewbs (Aug 23, 2009)

Robert-Y said:


> Hmm would anyone push the button if there was a 10% chance of getting killed? If so, what about 20% and so on and so on...
> 
> (Someone turn this into a good question, I can't seem to find the right words...)



basically you're saying if the chance of death increases, would you then press the button? If so, at what value would you then not press the button.


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## Robert-Y (Aug 23, 2009)

calekewbs said:


> Robert-Y said:
> 
> 
> > Hmm would anyone push the button if there was a 10% chance of getting killed? If so, what about 20% and so on and so on...
> ...



Ah thank you. And btw I would not push that button for money. But what if... pushing that button would prevent an inncoent person from dying and there was still a 1% chance of getting killed?


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## Stefan (Aug 23, 2009)

dbax0999 said:


> There is a button that will give you $20,000 dollars every time you push it. However, 1% of the time, pushing the button will kill you instantly.
> 
> How many times would you push the button?


Until I die.

I'd push it whenever I run out of money:
Once after spending the money I have right now.
Once more after spending the first $20,000.
Once more after spending the second $20,000.
Etc.

This is a disguised way to ask how much we value our lives, isn't it?


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## Erik (Aug 23, 2009)

risk = chance x effect
= 0.1 x infinite 
= infinite

sadly no pushes for the button. I'll stroke it maybe


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## StachuK1992 (Aug 23, 2009)

Hm...if I get a robot to push the button, do I still have a chance of death?


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## fanwuq (Aug 23, 2009)

dannyz0r said:


> Once and then i'd use the money to pay other people to press it for me after signing a contract.



At first I thought of something like this, but then I couldn't figure out how I can get profit from this. So I think it would be easiest to just buy the button and charge a fee for pressing it. I would not push it at all... unless I'm old, greedy, crazy, and feel like screwing up the economy with inflation. That might happen someday, but I would not press that once right now.
Oh, it actually really depends on how painful is the dying process and how long that process lasts. If it is painless and takes 60+ years, I might as well as press it like crazy immediately. If it is very painful, then I would never press it. I assume it was painless and instant for this question to test how much we value our lives. Even more interesting if there is also a variable time and pain for the death.
And is there also a variable chance that Hell exists after you die? Especially a cubing hell?


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## Logan (Aug 23, 2009)

Stachuk1992 said:


> Hm...if I get a robot to push the button, do I still have a chance of death?





no. but the robot cannot give the money to you.


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## Stefan (Aug 23, 2009)

Why do some of you assume you know anything about what would happen if someone other than you pressed the button? You weren't told anything about that. Maybe if you let another person or a robot push the button, you die instantly? Or the planet explodes?


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## Logan (Aug 24, 2009)

I'm just making it up so Stachuk can't be happy. 

You're right. None of us (except maybe dbax0999) knows what would happen. We're kind of making it up as we go.


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## Kian (Aug 24, 2009)

I can't believe anyone would press the button, risking a fairly high chance of dying, for just $20,000. That's MAYBE enough to sustain an adult for a year in many parts of the US. I think this is skewed by the number of young people who may not consider how poor the risk-reward is in this instance.

And I frankly don't believe any of you (if you value your life much), given the actual opportunity, would actually be able to press the button. Contemplating is very different from really doing it.


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## fanwuq (Aug 24, 2009)

StefanPochmann said:


> Why do many of you assume you know anything about what would happen if someone other than you pressed the button? You weren't told anything about that. Maybe if you let another person or a robot push the button, you die instantly? Or the planet explodes?



Good points. Are there any other (side)effects than getting $20,000 when you push the button?
When you die, is it just you? If not, a terrorist would definitely push it to explode the whole world.
Can I open up the button to see how it works? And somehow disable it?
May I put the button on my shirt? That way, if someone try to rob me, they would either die or leave me alone after obtaining $20,000.


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## Logan (Aug 24, 2009)

It really depends. If I'm myself (a health 14 year old boy) I wouldn't press it. If I was a 65 year old guy who needed a $20,000 surgery to cure his cancer, then I might press it.


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## Stefan (Aug 24, 2009)

Kian said:


> I can't believe anyone would press the button, risking a fairly high chance of dying, for just $20,000.


Well... I've seen people be happy after they won money. I've never seen people be sad after they died.


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## endless_akatsuki (Aug 24, 2009)

StefanPochmann said:


> Well... I've seen people be happy after they won money. I've never seen people be sad after they died.



lol. Too true.

I wouldn't press the button at all...just 'cause I'm like that.


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## Cride5 (Aug 24, 2009)

Robert-Y said:


> Hmm would anyone push the button if there was a 10% chance of getting killed? If so, what about 20% and so on and so on...
> 
> (Someone turn this into a good question, I can't seem to find the right words...)



An interesting question for those who wouldn't press the the button:

You have two buttons:
Press button 1 and you have a 1% chance of instant death, and you gain $20,000
Press button 2 and you have a 10% chance of instant death, and you gain $20,000,000
If no button is pressed you have a 100% chance of instant death.


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## dbax0999 (Aug 24, 2009)

Logan said:


> I'm just making it up so Stachuk can't be happy.
> 
> You're right. None of us (except maybe dbax0999) knows what would happen. We're kind of making it up as we go.



Yeah I don't even know what happens. My friend (I believe his name is r3v34l on this forum. He never posts) just told me he saw this on some other forum, so I thought I'd ask it here.


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## Kubinator97 (Aug 24, 2009)

skipp the first press than do it 99 times


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## jms_gears1 (Aug 24, 2009)

Logan said:


> Stachuk1992 said:
> 
> 
> > Hm...if I get a robot to push the button, do I still have a chance of death?
> ...



well then id rob the robot.


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## amostay2004 (Aug 24, 2009)

Hell yeah I would press it 2-3 times..

I mean, we don't know it but we are occasionally placed in a situation where there is a 1% chance we would die. For example, not checking the brakes in your car monthly might give you a 1% chance of dying every time you drive. Or taking alcohol before driving..

Heck if we would give up that 1% for laziness and getting drunk I don't see why not to press that button and get 20k


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## PCwizCube (Aug 24, 2009)

Wait until you're 100 years old or something, push it all the time you want until you die, and give the rest to your children or something lol.


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## ben1996123 (Aug 24, 2009)

Rubik's Cube Fan said:


> Wait until you're 100 years old or something, push it all the time you want until you die, and give the rest to your children or something lol.


Good idea!


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## qqwref (Aug 24, 2009)

I've heard that people implicitly value their lives at ~$10 million... what this means is that, to take a job that has a (say) 1/1000 chance of killing them each year, they'd need $10k extra per year to be just as willing to take that job.

So I guess you could say that a typical, rational person would expect $100k for a 1% chance of death.


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## elcarc (Aug 24, 2009)

dont get greedy and press it once


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## teller (Aug 24, 2009)

Maybe if it were for a life-changing amount. I am a poker-player and I am used to getting screwed when I have +++EV. But 1% is very good odds. It is an understatement to say that you most likely won't die. But for $20,000? That's not enough to compensate for the risk; this my life we're talking about...perhaps $500,000 would yield ONE click from me. It's not that I don't value my life, but I could die tomorrow from a freak accident and a 1% risk for a large enough amount is probably worth the leap.


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## Inf3rn0 (Aug 24, 2009)

Just once maybe twice.


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## coolmission (Aug 24, 2009)

StefanPochmann said:


> Why do some of you assume you know anything about what would happen if someone other than you pressed the button? You weren't told anything about that. Maybe if you let another person or a robot push the button, you die instantly? Or the planet explodes?



That's one badass button...

Also, where would this money come from? Would a guy in a hat come up to you and say "HAVE THIS.... sir!", or does it just appear out of nowhere. If there is a man who delivers the money, kidnap him (yes, you would have to press the button once, but it would be worth it) and wait until someone starts looking for him. Then, kidnap those who are looking for him as well, and make them work in a "sadistic button"-sweatshop for the rest of their lives, producing more of these cruel buttons, which you can later sell to evil corporations as torture methods...


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## LNZ (Aug 24, 2009)

I would of calculated the "expected" payoff for this game. But someone has done so already. And the answer is not to take part in it and win $0.

Actually, this was the stuation Japan faced when the second atomic bomb was used on August 9, 1945. Continue on and face a loss of minus infinity (total nuclear wipe out) and believe Japan COULD still win the war and HOPE the US had no more atomic bombs or take a costly (but finite large) loss and lose alot of grace but still have Japan exist on this planet. We all know what happened next.


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## how-to-solve-a-rubix (Aug 24, 2009)

will not take any change. i will try to make money without pressing any dedly buttons


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## Hadley4000 (Aug 24, 2009)

Well, it looks like if there IS a button there will be less competition at tournaments.


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## Edmund (Aug 24, 2009)

I don't think I'd press it at all.


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## Waynilein (Aug 25, 2009)

cmhardw said:


> I would look at the expected value. I rate winning $20,000 dollars as (+20000). I rate dying as (-infinity) or negative infinity.
> 
> So, using my utility function or my ratings of the outcomes, there is an expected value of pushing the button at:
> 
> ...





Erik said:


> risk = chance x effect
> = 0.1 x infinite
> = infinite
> 
> sadly no pushes for the button. I'll stroke it maybe




How can you possibly value life "infinitely"?

Imagine if the button shortened your life by a second. You simply die a second before you normally would (still at a 1% chance). Would that second also be worth infinitely much? Now if that time was increased from a second to a day, a year, or the exact amount of time you would normally live... Where do you draw the line between a finite number and infinity?

This is assuming you don't value a second of your life infinitely, since there is very little you could possibly do in a second...


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## Lucas Garron (Aug 25, 2009)

Waynilein said:


> This is assuming you don't value a second of your life infinitely, since there is very little you could possibly do in a second...


You could press a button in a second.


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## StachuK1992 (Aug 25, 2009)

How can you possibly value life "infinitely"?

Imagine if the button shortened your life by a second. You simply die a second before you normally would (still at a 1% chance). Would that second also be worth infinitely much? Now if that time was increased from a second to a day, a year, or the exact amount of time you would normally live... Where do you draw the line between a finite number and infinity?

This is assuming you don't value a second of your life infinitely, since there is very little you could possibly do in a second...[/quote]
I actually really like this idea.
I'm thinking that 1 day would 'cost' about...well...it really depends...

Does this 1 day come soon, like, would I miss tomorrow, or is this one day taken from when I'm old?
Can I choose which days I want to take off?


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## elcarc (Aug 25, 2009)

uggh, just push it once, if you live, walk away 20000 dollars richer, and alive


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## Waffle's Minion (Aug 25, 2009)

Ten times, chances are that you would be okay. For each time you press the button, you lose one second of your live, keep on pressing it when everyou want, because that second being taken away is probably useless on it's own.


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## ChrisBird (Aug 25, 2009)

Hadley4000 said:


> Well, it looks like if there IS a button there will be less competition at tournaments.



May I politely ask why this would be the case?


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## Edmund (Aug 25, 2009)

MonkeyDude1313 said:


> Hadley4000 said:
> 
> 
> > Well, it looks like if there IS a button there will be less competition at tournaments.
> ...



Hadley said it because it seems like a lot of people are doing it and might die.


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## PCwizCube (Aug 25, 2009)

Simple solution:

Program a robot that will push the button as many times as it can. If the robot "dies" then who cares? Use the money from the button pushing to get a new robot and keep on doing that and you'll be rich


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## cmhardw (Aug 25, 2009)

Stachuk1992 said:


> How can you possibly value life "infinitely"



The more I think about this, the more I realize that I don't value life infinitely. If I did, I would never drive a car, drink a liquid, or even eat food, as each of those has an associated (although miniscule) risk of dying involved.

The problem I run into is in finding my utility function for this button. I need to find the monetary value that I consider equivalent to my life, which is quite difficult to do. Clearly $20,000 isn't even remotely close as I would not consider pushing the button for a measly $20,000 dollars. However, a lifetime of not ever having to work and having every expense I incur for the rest of my life paid for would be a worthwhile payout for the risk of pushing the button (assuming a 99% chance of the outcome I just described, and a 1% chance of an instant, painless death). I can't find the middle ground, or the break even point, where I am absolutely indifferent to the two outcomes of winning the money, or dying instantly.

Can you find this middle ground for you? If you would certainly push the button for $20,000 dollars would you push it for $10,000 dollars? For $10? For $1?

Chris


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## Kuraudo39 (Aug 25, 2009)

I would push the button for 50k+. Me = Financial difficulties


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